Given how long these problems have been staring us in the face, it's truly hard not to be totally pessimistic about the future. If we haven't changed yet, do we even have the capacity to do so?
The world is (one hopes) just beginning to emerge from a global disaster of a known variety, for which there has been longstanding scientific and technical understanding, as well as existing paybooks for dealing with the situation. Response by the most capable and technologically-advanced countries has often been abysmal.
The coming global energy transition is going to be orders of magnitude more complex and fraught than the COVID-19 pandemic has been. And this is uncharted territory, with no tested playbook (the IPCC guidelines and publications are at least a playbook), and ongoing dissent within and among countries as to measures to be taken and how costs are to be allocated.
William Ophuls studied this question beginning in the late 1960s. His PhD dissertation in political science at Yale was published as Ecology and the Politics of Scarcity[1] in 1977 (it's been revised since), and the question has been Ophuls's life work.[2]
In particular, Ophuls's assessment of the global situation in the 1970s, the likely developments in ensuing decades, which 44 years on we can compare against history, and likely sticking points yet to come, stand out. Ophuls is a realist, but an optimist (perhaps somewhat less of the latter with time). He does see a path out. But it hasn't been the path chosen over the past five decades.
Problems are solved by optimists. Dont be pessimistic, we will solve problems as they arise. If you are truly worries about your future the best way is to get into the trenches.
I admire the spirit of this comment but can't quite get onboard, because "the trenches" can be kind of a demoralizing place, especially when you're not winning the war. I've spent 30 years bike-commuting for example and have been car-free for much of that time. The lifestyle has many liberating aspects but it strongly encourages without quite requiring, that you forgo or reduce certain things, like day-trips, sightseeing, shopping for furniture or other large items, other kinds of shopping, social outings, playing drums in a band, fishing? I dunno, any location- or gear-intensive hobby. Consumption overall (not just on transportation) tends to go down, so it's great for saving money.
But do I feel like a hero for all the fuel I saved, the carbon I didn't emit, the road space I freed up? Do I feel like I made a difference? No, all I did was make it easier for others to do those things, and boy did they ever continue doing them, in increasing numbers, the entire time. Even my so-called people, transportation reform "activists," bend over backward not to "shame" each other for buying cars, and buying cars to replace the cars they bought before. So I feel more like a sucker than a hero when I consider all that. In the end it has to be about just getting outside and enjoying the fresh air.
Sounds like a great experiment and a lifestyle choice that should be available to those who want it. But individual action will always be trumped by invention. The fully optimistic way forward isn't self sacrifice, it's developing the things -- neighborhoods, vehicles, fuels, whatever -- that make it possible for everyone to do more stuff with less energy, and enjoy doing it.
That's the #1 area to solve for any future civilization and we are going to need a hell of a lot more than what wind, solar or even fossil fuel can deliver in the future. Energy-density is where it's at IMO.
I think the answer (at least to me) is obvious. Maybe because I think about climate a little different than most, who knows.
Climate and nature have always been a problem for humans, and will always be a problem for humans. The good news is that we have never been better able to deal with the problems that the climate throws at us even if some of them are partially self-inflicted.
If you are worried about climate change because of CO2 emissions there is one problem you need to solve and that is energy. Not by some low energy-dense and elaborate daisy-chain rube-goldberg constellation that will only make energy more expensive, require all sorts of backup and complex infrastructure and thus make it harder for poor people to get out of poverty and as you point to, not actually change much.
Instead look for clean, energy-dense solutions like Thorium, Fusion or maybe even some sort of fuel-cell that can scale at affordable economics. We are going to need a lot more energy in the future so better find something that actually works on large scale, that's the #1 problem to work on.
I just wanted to let you know this was a beautiful comment. I had a brutal day at work today and spent all evening moping about issues that arose that were intimidating and daunting. Seeing this was exactly what I needed
Realists just accept things as they are. Optimist believe they can change the future in ways realists can't. Optimism is the mental beacon for any progress not realism.
The world is (one hopes) just beginning to emerge from a global disaster of a known variety, for which there has been longstanding scientific and technical understanding, as well as existing paybooks for dealing with the situation. Response by the most capable and technologically-advanced countries has often been abysmal.
The coming global energy transition is going to be orders of magnitude more complex and fraught than the COVID-19 pandemic has been. And this is uncharted territory, with no tested playbook (the IPCC guidelines and publications are at least a playbook), and ongoing dissent within and among countries as to measures to be taken and how costs are to be allocated.
William Ophuls studied this question beginning in the late 1960s. His PhD dissertation in political science at Yale was published as Ecology and the Politics of Scarcity[1] in 1977 (it's been revised since), and the question has been Ophuls's life work.[2]
In particular, Ophuls's assessment of the global situation in the 1970s, the likely developments in ensuing decades, which 44 years on we can compare against history, and likely sticking points yet to come, stand out. Ophuls is a realist, but an optimist (perhaps somewhat less of the latter with time). He does see a path out. But it hasn't been the path chosen over the past five decades.
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Notes:
1. Ophuls: https://archive.org/details/ecologypolitics00ophu
2. Bibliography: https://www.worldcat.org/search?qt=worldcat_org_all&q=au%3Ao...