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by mandis 1879 days ago
Ground reality-

* 400,000 new infections reported yesterday. Number of deaths is being suppressed- 10x more deaths than reported. Crematoriums everywhere are overflowing, yet only 3k deaths per day as per official record.

* Basic resources like Oxygen, Meds (Favipiravir, Remdesivir, Monitors), Hospital beds keep running out in many cities and towns. Everything is on sale for 2-10x the official prices. For example, Remdesivir selling for Rs 20,000 ($300) instead of Rs 2,000. Ambulances charging Rs 25,000 for a half hour transport, instead of Rs 2,500.

* Beds are a tragedy. People are dying in their cars (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/noida/no-bed-in-4-n...). Day rent for beds in nursing home corridors (yes, actual narrow corridors) are selling for an amount equal to the average monthly salary of a middle class citizen.

* The government organized election rallies and religious gatherings and overruled the concerns of many educated voices over the last 2 months. Lockdown in election bound states was only announced yesterday, once all rallies and multi-phase election was finished. Votes/Power over lives, that's the mantra. One head of state went as far as to pass an order declaring anyone posting stories of O2 shortage will be prosecuted and arrested. (https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/covid-up-hospitals-defy...)

* People have stepped up as the govt has abdicated responsibility, sharing resources on their stories and working all day to verify their availability by calling hospitals and crematoriums. However the scale of the tragedy is immense and people who could have been saved are dropping like flies. This wave is affecting 40, 50 year olds, without any comorbidities. Apparently the strain is a double mutant (mutation of the strain from UK), and now a triple variant is also being reported.

* EDIT- Also for the sake of PR, the central govt sent more than half the vaccine produced abroad. Apparently the concept of stockpiling and reserves isn't common knowledge with the Indian political elite. So today we are at a situation where we are importing the vaccines we had exported, as we are desperately short on stocks and there is no relief in sight. Only 1.9% of India's population has received 2 doses of the vaccine. Long story short, many people will die.

2 comments

Agree with almost everything. Health care is collapsing around us.

10x death-undercount nationwide is probably not accurate. Major states like Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala are reporting close to accurate numbers. 2-5x nationwide is likely, with places like UP, West Bengal and Gujarat undercounting by 5-10x.

I hope and pray its not 10x and only 5x. You might be right about the state wise discrepancies, sadly don't think we will ever know the real picture, as even crematoriums are fudging records in many places. So much for being better than China.

Btw since this is HN, might there be a way to approximate the number of deaths from the size of one's social circle and the number of circle members who have passed away from covid?

There were similar claims last time as well. It seems Kerala reported 20k less deaths in 2020[1]. There might be disparity but saying 5x or 10x is too much.

[1]https://theprint.in/opinion/if-you-claim-indias-covid-death-...]

Say 1/3 of the crematoriums are seeing 3x dead on average nation wide. That'll be `1400m/(70*365)/3*2 == 36k` extra death per day which is 10x of official number..

[edit]: i used the same logic to predict the number for Wuhan in Jan 2020 which turned out to be fairly accurate

Basic resources like...(...Remdesivir)

I've been following this on social media, and the Indian desperation for Remdesivir struck me (now it seems to be for oxygen, sadly). It's heartbreaking, but also interesting to see how many people are desperate for the drug. Is this based on evidence? What's driving the demand: doctors or the public?

We've seen a similar craze for ivermectin in South Africa, and there was the HCQ craze in the US. It would be interesting to see if there are parallels.

Yes. If given early enough it has been shown to cut down length of stay and severity of disease.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle...