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by pessimist 1880 days ago
Agree with almost everything. Health care is collapsing around us.

10x death-undercount nationwide is probably not accurate. Major states like Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala are reporting close to accurate numbers. 2-5x nationwide is likely, with places like UP, West Bengal and Gujarat undercounting by 5-10x.
1 comments
mandis 1880 days ago
I hope and pray its not 10x and only 5x. You might be right about the state wise discrepancies, sadly don't think we will ever know the real picture, as even crematoriums are fudging records in many places. So much for being better than China.

Btw since this is HN, might there be a way to approximate the number of deaths from the size of one's social circle and the number of circle members who have passed away from covid?

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hesarenu 1880 days ago
There were similar claims last time as well. It seems Kerala reported 20k less deaths in 2020[1]. There might be disparity but saying 5x or 10x is too much.

[1]https://theprint.in/opinion/if-you-claim-indias-covid-death-...]

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throwawayy12 1880 days ago
Say 1/3 of the crematoriums are seeing 3x dead on average nation wide. That'll be `1400m/(70*365)/3*2 == 36k` extra death per day which is 10x of official number..

[edit]: i used the same logic to predict the number for Wuhan in Jan 2020 which turned out to be fairly accurate

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