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by Zr40
1869 days ago
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> Where else are people meant to store money? Money isn't stored in other assets. It's transferred from the buyer of an asset to the seller. It doesn't cease to exist simply because you traded it for stocks (or gold or anything else). Now the seller has to deal with the consequences of holding the money you previously held. A rational trader factors in the costs of money when they price assets, therefore one doesn't avoid those costs by trading money for other assets. |
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This is the natural consequence of negative real interest rates. With positive rates the infinite series representing the "discounted value of all future cash flows" converges to a single dollar value. With negative rates the series diverges: the "discounted value" of future cash flows is greater than their nominal value, simply because you're losing money with competing investments. The rational value of any investment that generates positive and predictable cash flows becomes infinite.
Right now the only thing holding a lid on equity valuations is the expectation that the Fed will eventually raise rates, and so cash flows from time periods > 2023 need to be discounted at positive rates. If that doesn't happen, or if they don't raise rates by more than the inflation rate at the time, things will go boom.