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by nostrademons
1876 days ago
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Right, and so the seller then has to put that money back in the market in some other asset at marginally higher prices, lest they lose money to inflation holding it in cash (or fixed-denomination assets). This is the natural consequence of negative real interest rates. With positive rates the infinite series representing the "discounted value of all future cash flows" converges to a single dollar value. With negative rates the series diverges: the "discounted value" of future cash flows is greater than their nominal value, simply because you're losing money with competing investments. The rational value of any investment that generates positive and predictable cash flows becomes infinite. Right now the only thing holding a lid on equity valuations is the expectation that the Fed will eventually raise rates, and so cash flows from time periods > 2023 need to be discounted at positive rates. If that doesn't happen, or if they don't raise rates by more than the inflation rate at the time, things will go boom. |
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