[jlund-molfese]

But the graph only shows YTD losses, right? If you make the 2021 graph 3 times larger to compensate for the roughly 1/3rd of the year we've seen so far[1], it looks like more than a fluke than just 2020 alone. Both 2020 and 2021 should have more cargo loss than any year since 2013.

[1] https://i.imgur.com/k5hWs8u.jpg

[boomboomsubban]

There's no reason to suspect that we'll see two more 250+ crate loss accidents this year leading to results like your graph predicts.

[nieve]

Nor is there any reason to supposed that the increased accidents are pure flukes that can't possibly happen again this year. If there's increased _systemic_ risk due to risky sailing, bad cargo management, etc. it'd be understandable for more outliers to occur. I don't think we can handwave away that somehow we're done with major accidents for the year only a third of the way in.

[boomboomsubban]

>I don't think we can handwave away that somehow we're done with major accidents for the year only a third of the way in.

These kinds of events are rare, even if something is causing more systemic risk there's no way to predict how many more will happen this year. I'm not handwaving anything away, I'm saying projections aren't useful.