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by nieve
1877 days ago
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Nor is there any reason to supposed that the increased accidents are pure flukes that can't possibly happen again this year. If there's increased _systemic_ risk due to risky sailing, bad cargo management, etc. it'd be understandable for more outliers to occur. I don't think we can handwave away that somehow we're done with major accidents for the year only a third of the way in. |
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These kinds of events are rare, even if something is causing more systemic risk there's no way to predict how many more will happen this year. I'm not handwaving anything away, I'm saying projections aren't useful.