| >That’s a hard comparison as there many variables during past case declines too when curfew lifted Certainly, but if the curfew was the determinant factor, then we would not see the decline persist past it's relaxation or removal. >However, right now Ontario has had a total lockdown for a while, but no curfew. Even the implementation of the major measures in January 1st did not have much effect outside of healthcare until around 2 weeks afterwards. It's only been four days since Ontario implemented similar measures. The earlier "lockdown" was a lockdown in name only and even allowed gyms and indoor-dining to be open. For this comparison to be made we will still have to wait at least ten days. As it stands, the only conclusion we can take from this data we have so far is that the curfew is likely not the decisive, as case declines persisted after it's removal and relaxation. The priors we have from expert opinions and even government officials is that the lockdown is not expect to be effective. From this, I can't conclude anything except that the lockdowns are likely not effective. |
Wait you’re expanding this to not just curfew, but any lockdown is ineffective?
I’d invite you to check out the recent outbreak on Newfoundland. Large undetected outbreak, lots of spread, 100% UK variant, totally eliminated in a month due to a lockdown with high compliance, return to zero cases.
I should add I do have some doubts about the curfew with warm weather. Outdoor socialization isn’t harmful, and people will feel more deprived now than during the winter one, when many people hibernate anyway.