[graeme]

> From this, I can't conclude anything except that the lockdowns are likely not effective.

Wait you’re expanding this to not just curfew, but any lockdown is ineffective?

I’d invite you to check out the recent outbreak on Newfoundland. Large undetected outbreak, lots of spread, 100% UK variant, totally eliminated in a month due to a lockdown with high compliance, return to zero cases.

I should add I do have some doubts about the curfew with warm weather. Outdoor socialization isn’t harmful, and people will feel more deprived now than during the winter one, when many people hibernate anyway.

[sudosysgen]

Oh fuck sorry I totally got mixed up, I absolutely meant curfew and not lockdown. I was debugging a really hairy algorithm at the same time and I got distacted. Of course, lockowns are incredibly effective, by far the most effective tool, and I wish we had let the first lockdown continue until completion.