[playingchanges]

Keep in mind that the death rate still has to exist in a given time frame so only can only be extrapolated backwards and has to be recalculated annually.

Strikes me as similar to those who predict x% returns on their s&p index funds based on past stock market performance.

The future is always unknown.

[IgorPartola]

I don’t think you can directly compare disease to the stock market. The stock market is a level 2 chaos system: predictions about it are direct inputs into the system affecting outcomes. Disease is generally much closer to level 1: it is random but unaffected by predictions. COVID is possibly mildly affected by predictions in that people might make travel plans based on predictions but I don’t think the majority of people are acting in ways that seriously change their transmission risk based on predictions.