The ideas and narratives put forth by Bridgewater/Dalio over the past 1-3 years are permeating markets and shaping investor sentiment more than you think. Both retail and institutional.
This could also be because he's right, and as more information comes out, the rest of the market is coming around to his line of thinking.
I made a number of bets on the tech industry early on in my career (2005-08): that the Web and Javascript would become increasingly more important, that Python would be a major language both for web development and for scientific computing, that Google and other new tech companies would continue growing until they were bigger than we could imagine, that startups would become a more respectable way of spending your career. I would happily crow about them to anyone that would listen, while also arranging my professional life to benefit from them. They happened. Did I cause the ascendancy of Javascript, or Python, or Google, or startups? Of course not. I called it, and then lots of other people, as events progressed, independently made the same call and jumped on the bandwagon.
So it is with Dalio (and Buffett, and other thought leaders in the financial industry). It's unlikely that their words are moving markets, particularly since their bets are often contrarian and unremarkable at the time they start publicly stating them, and financial markets often take years to catch up. Rather, they spot the trend, understand the implications, and then position themselves to benefit when everyone else spots the trend and understands the implications.
The definition of "right" within market dynamics isn't simple - prices will increase with the increased flow of capital regardless of whether the underlying ideas are sound. Changing the opinions of money managers can change the flow of capital. Just saying it is possible.
Your anecdote isn't equivalent here. You weren't broadcasting your idea to millions of people managing billions of dollars. If you did have that kind of power, it could have helped javascript/python/Google/startups get adopted faster.
The people making these investing decisions are actually experts in their fields. If you're managing the kind of money that moves these markets, you are a world recognized expert in what you do. These people are not materially being influenced by Ray Dalio's blog posts and books, and Dalio isn't trying to influence them to move markets, because he knows this. This idea is just not at all based in reality.
This sort of thing does actually happen in other domains, like short selling, and maybe you're reasoning by analogy with that activity. But that logic simply does not apply here. The amounts involved are too large, the liquidity moves too slowly, and the people involved have too much expertise. All the stuff Dalio is saying here is already known to them, and far more.
His articles and books are not innovative. They are not designed to educate experts. They are designed to popularize his ideas, among the general public.
Sorry I disagree - I am not saying they are purposefully influencing the flow of capital but their ideas are brought up for discussion by the so-called experts a lot more often because of who he is and how much they manage. Most managers are also not experts in making macro plays
I don't really know what to tell you here other than that that is incorrect. Not all asset managers are macro experts, you're right. But all asset managers that make market-relevant macro trades sure are.
The kinds of people you would have to influence to move these markets are phd macro economists working for central banks, and portfolio managers at places like Pimco. These kinds of people are not reading Dalio's books and thinking "oh man, never thought about these debt cycles before, better go short treasuries".
You will not struggle to find Bridgewater/Dalio talking about the following themes:
- The concept of "Debt cycles" (From Dalio's book "Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises")
- Interpretation of monetary policy effects on markets
- Emerging markets (Mainly China) and the rise and fall of "reserve currencies"
I made a number of bets on the tech industry early on in my career (2005-08): that the Web and Javascript would become increasingly more important, that Python would be a major language both for web development and for scientific computing, that Google and other new tech companies would continue growing until they were bigger than we could imagine, that startups would become a more respectable way of spending your career. I would happily crow about them to anyone that would listen, while also arranging my professional life to benefit from them. They happened. Did I cause the ascendancy of Javascript, or Python, or Google, or startups? Of course not. I called it, and then lots of other people, as events progressed, independently made the same call and jumped on the bandwagon.
So it is with Dalio (and Buffett, and other thought leaders in the financial industry). It's unlikely that their words are moving markets, particularly since their bets are often contrarian and unremarkable at the time they start publicly stating them, and financial markets often take years to catch up. Rather, they spot the trend, understand the implications, and then position themselves to benefit when everyone else spots the trend and understands the implications.