[darawk]

The people making these investing decisions are actually experts in their fields. If you're managing the kind of money that moves these markets, you are a world recognized expert in what you do. These people are not materially being influenced by Ray Dalio's blog posts and books, and Dalio isn't trying to influence them to move markets, because he knows this. This idea is just not at all based in reality.

This sort of thing does actually happen in other domains, like short selling, and maybe you're reasoning by analogy with that activity. But that logic simply does not apply here. The amounts involved are too large, the liquidity moves too slowly, and the people involved have too much expertise. All the stuff Dalio is saying here is already known to them, and far more.

His articles and books are not innovative. They are not designed to educate experts. They are designed to popularize his ideas, among the general public.

[stevievee]

Sorry I disagree - I am not saying they are purposefully influencing the flow of capital but their ideas are brought up for discussion by the so-called experts a lot more often because of who he is and how much they manage. Most managers are also not experts in making macro plays

[darawk]

I don't really know what to tell you here other than that that is incorrect. Not all asset managers are macro experts, you're right. But all asset managers that make market-relevant macro trades sure are.

The kinds of people you would have to influence to move these markets are phd macro economists working for central banks, and portfolio managers at places like Pimco. These kinds of people are not reading Dalio's books and thinking "oh man, never thought about these debt cycles before, better go short treasuries".