[Retric]

You’re skipping permits +construction ~10 years and decommissioning which seems to take 30+ years on average though few have actually finished the process. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_decommissioning

75% capacity factor * 50y / (50y + 10y construction + ~30y decommissioning) = 42% capacity factor which is higher than solar but not by that much.

But let’s assume you’re at a 1.5x capacity factor advantage. So 1.5 GW of solar = 1.0 GW of nuclear. 1.5GW / 220w/m2 = 2.9 square miles of panels plus panel spacing and whatever infrastructure is needed. Double it to be really pessimistic and your under 6 square miles.

[tohmasu]

>"So 1.5 GW of solar = 1.0 GW of nuclear."

That's not how it works. PV capacity factor is 11-12% to the 90-95% of nuclear meaning you need to install about an order of magnitude more PV effect not 1.5x.

[tohmasu]

Also one batch of PV panels equivalent to a reactor cost 6x as much and with a lifetime of 20 years to the 60 for a nuclear reactor so you will need to replace these at least twice. All 32.5 Million of them.

[Retric]

Replacing panels is just a cost question which dramatically favors solar. 2c/kWh is massively better than any nuclear reactor ever built or operated.

As we are talking land use, construction and decommissioning is a major hit to nuclear. But with solar you can operate continuously by just swapping panels and replacing wires etc as needed.

Basically, in steady state a 50 year nuclear power plant spends the first 30 years with the previous reactor being decommissioned, and it’s last 10 years with it’s replacement being built. Effectively you need 1.8 locations for a single power plant.

Also, I used a specific 75% capacity factor over it’s operating lifespan in that calculation. Some are higher, but the trend is down over time so you want to use an old reactor as your baseline. Here is 72.5% Decommission date 29 June 2020 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fessenheim_Nuclear_Power_Plant

[tohmasu]

Just no. Reactor buildings take up a small fraction of the total site area. Constructing additional reactors on existing sites has been done for about as long as nuclear power has existed and multiple reactors coexist simultaneously at the same site.

>"Replacing panels is just a cost question"

Sure, I bet you won't need more than 2 guys and a pickup truck to install, maintain and replace the 120 million panels it would take to create the equivalent to a site with 4 modern reactors. After all, that's only 35 000 panels to install every day if you want to build the site in 10 years. Everything is magical with solar.

>"2c/kWh"

That's a hypothetical figure for 2050.

[Retric]

There are actual current contracts that agree to sell solar at under 2c/kWh. Construction of multiple reactors on the same location is very common, constructing a new reactor next to a reactor being decommissioned isn’t.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crystal_River_Nuclear_Plant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rancho_Seco_Nuclear_Generating... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shippingport_Atomic_Power_Stat... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Onofre_Nuclear_Generating_...

Etc

I mean in theory sure it seems like it should happen, but in practice not so much.

[tohmasu]

Please link. I've read about some far future contracts relying heavily on public subsidies but even those were at a higher price. At that price, earnings would (depending largely on geography) be something like 160-400 USD / 1.8m² panel over a 20 year period. This needs to cover panel cost, inverters and electrical infrastructure, installation&decommission, land rent, loss due to some prematurely dead panels, administration etc.

I would presume it's a matter of very few new nuclear reactors being built. Some smaller sites will be decommissioned regardless though.

[imtringued]

The inability to replace nuclear plants is actually the driving factor behind it's poor public perception. If you keep running untested 50 year old power plants on the brink of failure why would anyone be surprised that some of them do end up failing? If you could just turn the old plants off and replace them all accidents would have been prevented.