[Retric]

Replacing panels is just a cost question which dramatically favors solar. 2c/kWh is massively better than any nuclear reactor ever built or operated.

As we are talking land use, construction and decommissioning is a major hit to nuclear. But with solar you can operate continuously by just swapping panels and replacing wires etc as needed.

Basically, in steady state a 50 year nuclear power plant spends the first 30 years with the previous reactor being decommissioned, and it’s last 10 years with it’s replacement being built. Effectively you need 1.8 locations for a single power plant.

Also, I used a specific 75% capacity factor over it’s operating lifespan in that calculation. Some are higher, but the trend is down over time so you want to use an old reactor as your baseline. Here is 72.5% Decommission date 29 June 2020 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fessenheim_Nuclear_Power_Plant

[tohmasu]

Just no. Reactor buildings take up a small fraction of the total site area. Constructing additional reactors on existing sites has been done for about as long as nuclear power has existed and multiple reactors coexist simultaneously at the same site.

>"Replacing panels is just a cost question"

Sure, I bet you won't need more than 2 guys and a pickup truck to install, maintain and replace the 120 million panels it would take to create the equivalent to a site with 4 modern reactors. After all, that's only 35 000 panels to install every day if you want to build the site in 10 years. Everything is magical with solar.

>"2c/kWh"

That's a hypothetical figure for 2050.

[Retric]

There are actual current contracts that agree to sell solar at under 2c/kWh. Construction of multiple reactors on the same location is very common, constructing a new reactor next to a reactor being decommissioned isn’t.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crystal_River_Nuclear_Plant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rancho_Seco_Nuclear_Generating... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shippingport_Atomic_Power_Stat... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Onofre_Nuclear_Generating_...

Etc

I mean in theory sure it seems like it should happen, but in practice not so much.

[tohmasu]

Please link. I've read about some far future contracts relying heavily on public subsidies but even those were at a higher price. At that price, earnings would (depending largely on geography) be something like 160-400 USD / 1.8m² panel over a 20 year period. This needs to cover panel cost, inverters and electrical infrastructure, installation&decommission, land rent, loss due to some prematurely dead panels, administration etc.

I would presume it's a matter of very few new nuclear reactors being built. Some smaller sites will be decommissioned regardless though.

[Retric]

Subsides are common for all forms of electricity generation, but LA’s 2019 1.997c/kWh power purchase agreement is hardly the far future. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/28/los-angeles-seeks-rec...

Anyway to use a specific example Capacity factor 26.6% (average 2015–2018) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topaz_Solar_Farm.

Bulk panels are $0.29 per W or 290$ per kW. PS-P72-330W https://sunelec.com/

If 1kw is worth 0.01997 $/h * 24 * 0.266 * 365 * 20 = 930$. Of course they don’t instantly break exactly in year 20. They lose efficiency over time so averaging ~90% over 25 years which is ~100% over 22 years. https://sunelec.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/P72_outlin...

I can’t find an exact breakdown of costs spent on panels vs interest, instillation, inverters etc. But, at most we are talking about fractions of a cent worth of subsides to hit 2c/kWh.

[tohmasu]

>"0.01997 $/h * 24 * 0.266 * 365 * 20 = 930$"

That's a calculation based on 1kW of installed capacity, which is about 3 of those 345W panels so the earning per panel over its lifetime (in sunny southern California btw) is about $310.

Also the $ sign goes in front of the number.

[tohmasu]

Also, here's a B.Sc. paper from my alma mater (English abstract in the paper) http://www.diva-portal.se/smash/get/diva2:1236618/FULLTEXT01... that puts the current all inclusive production cost of nuclear power in Sweden (incl. funding for permanent spent fuel storage) at $0.03/kWh. That's an actual cost for stuff that actually exists today.