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by ChuckFrank 5505 days ago
I've been waiting for some time to call out Airbnb, and I think this is the right time.

Firstly, the idea of short term residential rentals is not new. Long before Airbnb major cities, Paris, London, New York, and Toronto were dealing with the issues and the problems of short term / nightly residential rentals. In fact the latest condo boom in Toronto has been ascribed to international investors buying condos explicitly for this quasi-hotel rental market. Many cities have been passing local laws trying to prohibit this type of rental use for residences because they carry a whole host of problems. Some of those include -- emptying the downtown core of residences, artificially increasing housing costs for residents, removing the stability and security that comes from having permanent and community-invested residents, shorting cities on their hotel taxes, providing unlicensed locations for short term illicit activities, etc. So by increasing the market in these short term rentals, the communities will also feel the increase in the unfortunate side effects of these short term rental impacts. These are long term market problems that Airbnb will have to address.

Secondly, it's not a new idea because in the recent past, these rentals were managed by hotel brokers. So in that respect, Airbnb major idea is simply to replace the traditional broker that used to handle the short term rentals with a direct owner to renter model. Across the internet we see great success in online services removing brokerage inefficiencies to various markets, and for this they should be congratulated, but not overly so.

And finally, about their execution. Airbnb is not the market leader. In fact --http://www.vrbo.com/ is. This is what amazes me the most. Vrbo (I have no professional relationship or otherwise) regularly get better reviews in online discussion boards comparing the two services. Their price structure is much more competitive, their review structure is much more robust, in fact aside from Airbnb's more sophisticated visual design, Vrbo leads in many segment of this space.

So, to what do I think Airbnb's success comes from? I think it's Airbnb's marketing / hype / buzz that has been carefully choreographed to maximize their valuation. And to this, I congratulate Airbnb on their latest success, and to a dance well done.

13 comments

This is pretty mild as "calling outs" go. I would summarize your first two points as "there is tremendous demand for this concept".

Your first point is that this basic concept has been so successful that governments have felt the need to regulate it to combat its adverse effects, which is a risk Airbnb is pretty well aware of. In fact, all of the adverse effects you list are true of hotels as well, except for "shorting cities on their hotel taxes". If municipalities eventually decide to force Airbnb to charge hotel taxes, that would diminish their appeal but probably not destroy the business. Hugely successful companies like Amazon are facing similar problems.

Your second point is essentially that the idea of providing an online marketplace to remove inefficiencies of brokerages is not a new one, and therefore Airbnb should not be "overly" congratulated. But we're not congratulating Airbnb for the novelty of the idea, but for building a business which is apparently worth a billion dollars. Many hugely successful startups have ideas which might be obvious.

As for your third point, there might be something legitimate there. I don't know anything about VRBO vs. AirBNB in terms of traction and customer satisfaction, but it appears from one of your other replies that your only evidence is anecdotal. My personal anecdotal evidence is that everyone I know has been very happy with using AirBNB.

Good points. Well stated. I clearly have overstated the VRBO vs. Airbnb customer satisfaction. I've changed it in my original post to reflect that correction.
I just did a quick compare and it looks like VRBO serves the high-end of the market exclusively, with stuff in Manhattan starting around $180/nt, whereas Airbnb starting at $80/nt. That in and of itself should tell you that probably people who only serve the high-end clientele are going to do better on average (e.g. in reviews), yet the market is much larger if you can serve both mid-to-low and high-end, and as far as I can tell Airbnb is doing both.

Which is to say, Airbnb says you have to have do due diligence yourself (which some people won't do, and will have bad experiences), whereas VRBO filters for you, but you will end up paying more on average.

That's to say, if asking which business model is better, I think you have to go 100% with Airbnb. Giving users more power makes them like you better in the long run, and even if there are more flakes, there will also be 10x more enthusiasts (potentially even celebrities which become investors/advisers). Customer enthusiasm isn't something you can immediately capture via looking at reviews, but I think the market is closer to the truth in its valuation then you are in your "call out."

So I agree that cities want to control who can rent what, and where, and that AirBNB is trying to disrupt this.

As you point out, there are negative consequences to this. These are serious, and I don't want to dispute any of them. But I do want to point out a positive consequence.

Recently I needed to stay for two weeks in Princeton, New Jersey for a mathematics conference. I learned to my horror that the only hotel within walking distance of the university is uber-fancy, and costs like $200 a night. If it wasn't for services like AirBNB (I used Craigslist, but would use AirBNB now), I would have had to pay $2800 for accomodation, or rent a car which I would have otherwise had no use for. (Or perhaps there are other options of which I am ignorant.)

Pardon my cynicism, but this is what I believe the people living in Princeton want. They enjoy the small town ambiance, even if it is vaguely faked, and presumably through their city council they push strong zoning regulations which make it impossible to build hotels, and therefore impractical to visit on business.

(N.B. None of this is even remotely unique to Princeton, but that is the one experience I have personally had which sticks out.)

There is a flip side to this (if I bought a $500K house perhaps I would want strict zoning too), but I still hate it. With AirBNB, rentals cost what the market will bear. AirBNB is bringing good old-fashioned free market capitalism where, IMHO, it belongs. I hope they are a wild success.

Re your first point, the only first hand knowledge/experience I have of this type market is from when my sister lived in Augusta Georgia. Every year for the Master's, some folks temporarily rent out their houses because the Master's (golf tournament) brings so many visitors to Augusta that the hotel market can't adequately serve it. It's a once a year event lasting about 2 weeks and the rest of the time the hotels are perfectly adequate to the needs of the city. The houses that are deemed the most desirable for this purpose are not those in the city core but those in walking distance of the golf course. The city is a madhouse during the Master's and traffic is insane (god help you if you need to make a left hand turn on the main drag that goes down to the golf course). Some residents rent out their house because you can temporarily get a premium price, enough to pay for you to go vacation elsewhere and not have to put up with this insanity. I have difficulty imagining another means to adequately meet the ridiculously high rental demand for this brief annual period.

I know it's an unusual situation, but it makes me wonder if it's really "all downside" so to speak. (And I had a goal of being a city planner at one time, so I am plenty familiar with the fact that out-of-town owners and the like can be very detrimental to a community.)

I think you miss the point if you rate the market leader by customer satisfaction rather than revenue or customer base. I just did a few searches of smaller US and UK cities, and found 5-40x as many listings on Airbnb as VRBO.

For example in my nearest city (Cambridge, UK, which is both highly techie and touristy), Airbnb returns 38 results, VRBO 0. I tried various US and European cities and got a common pattern.

Thanks. Interesting data points. Surprised VRBO has nothing in Cambridge!
And to their credit. Their customer acquisition rate appears to significant indeed.

http://www.fastcodesign.com/1663349/infographic-of-the-day-a...

If I understand your first complaint, it's that short-term rentals increase the cost to buy real estate in a touristy location.

I believe a more accurate way to phrase this is that the short-term rental market provides a more accurate valuation of the property.

High prices are complaint only for the buyer; the seller will be glad that his condo is now valued correctly.

How is a one night/one week rental a 'more accurate' valuation? I don't get it.
@ChuckFrank said that buying property for the purpose of short-term rentals is responsible for "artificially increasing housing costs for residents". I was just pointing out that the cost increase wasn't artificial; the property value was intrinsically worth more than the market rate before short-term rentals were common.
Regulations distort true market prices.
And 'true markets' distort communities.

Anecdotally there's a significant problem in the UK with some rural regions becoming significantly hotels for the wealthy. People like them so buy properties as second homes, maybe to live in a 5-10 days a month at maximum and sometimes far less.

The work available locally can't support the prices such customers are willing and able to pay, so the community becomes significantly weighted towards the old (who bought before the prices rose) and the absentee second home owner. This starts reducing the demand for local services (shops, schools, public transport) through a lower active population which makes the community less and less viable for full time living and....

'True markets' may optimise for supply and demand but they don't always for maximum societal good.

^ This post is a classic example of why it's so hard to be an entrepreneur. No matter what mountain you climb, there will always be people yelling that you don't deserve the success, or that anyone could have climbed that mountain, or that you should stop climbing mountains right now lest you "empty the downtown core". Always another brickbat.
That's just silly. You aren't going to get anywhere in life spouting "haters gonna hate" ad nauseum.

The comment has some very compelling points to consider. None of us, and nothing we create is so beyond constructive criticism that intelligent contrary opinions can be rejected outright.

You may have had a tough day, but god help us all if we start believing our own bullshit 24/7.

Huh? Entrepreneurs deal with lots of very difficult challenges. Haters are unpleasant, but not really a "challenge".
Finally, someone had the insight to call out this company! I mean they've only managed to build a billion dollar business by turning ordinary homeowners into businessmen, provided better accomodation to hundreds of thousands of travellers across the world, destabilised an established old industry with entrenched market leaders while taking on a myriad of social and local government issues.

Seriously, they don't deserve all this hype and buzz.

Obviously that's a strawman argument. If I'm mistaken about calling Airbnb to the table, address my points, as I will address yours.

1. They haven't build a billion dollar business, they are only valued at that. There's a bid difference.

2. Ordinary homeowners have and had many other options to rent their properties - Short term rental brokers and VRBO are just two of them. Craigslist in another one. Airbnb alone cannot take that as their success.

3. Perhaps they have provided better accommodations than their competitors. Do you have anything to support that?

4. The internet itself is destabilizing the entrenched markets.

5. And here's the reason I responded, because I am most interested in the work that they are doing to address the social and local government issues. Please provide something to support that. Google doesn't have anything..

http://www.google.com/search?q=airbnb+address+local+issues&#...

Nor does Airbnb themselves

http://www.airbnb.com/help/search?q=local+government

"4. The internet itself is destabilizing the entrenched markets."

This one is a bit unfair, though I don't know about the rest. "The Internet (TM)" doesn't just destabilize industries in an abstract sense, it destabilizes them by a set of real companies that take market share from entrenched competition, and by allowing that entrenched competition to sometimes improve themselves in the new market (which doesn't happen as often as you'd think). It's not "The Internet (TM)" that gets credit, it's those companies.

Does Airbnb have yearly revenue of a billion dollar? According to the article 1.6 million nights have been booked through them, if they are a "billion dollar" business than average booking revenue will be $625.
Did you read the headline?
Yes it says 1 billion+ valuation not a billion dollar business.
"Billion dollar business" typically refers to revenue, not valuation.
Do you have good stats on the size of the market? I somehow thought http://www.homeaway.com was the leader here, and if you count in timeshare rentals, eBay being a close competitor, but I could be way off.
AMAZING. A great addition to this discussion.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=airbnb%2C+vrbo&ctab=0&...

Google trends airbnb v. vbro.

Homeaway bought vrbo for 160M in 2006.
It surprised me that VRBO leads in renter satisfaction. Do you have a source for that?
I can't seem to find the exact reference. Though I clearly remember making a mental note of it.

See previous post on the topic.

http://apps.ycombinator.com/item?id=2333475

See charlie4real comments.

Finally, all my friends who rent space in their residences do so with VRBO. Across the board they say that after using and comparing both services, VRBO is a superior service than Airbnb for those wanting to have short term rentals in their house. So while this may not be representative, it sure seems informative.

very similar to charlie4real - cancelled my airbnb listing and keeping vrbo.com - basically same reasosn, site heavily skewed towards renters, no control over money, wrong kind of renters (short term, always asking for discounts, etc) They do have a market niche, just not applicable for my situation (renting vacation home 8 month out of 12)
I can verify the vacation home market with an anecdote: my family has rented a few vacation homes with vrbo and the experience has been great.
VRBO is awful.
What's wrong with them?
Well to correct your point, CouchSurfing.org was the first one to do it back in I'd say 2005 or 2006. However, this was to help people on their travels find free places to stay. I used it quite frequently on my first world trip. AirBnB just put a business model on it and came out in 2008.

I support AirBnB 100% however I have not had good experiences with it in Los Angeles so far. Lots of spammers, strange anonymous people emailing me trying to either low-ball my offer or asking if they could throw a party or something at my spot. No thanks.

Ditto on

So, to what do I think Airbnb's success comes from? I think it's Airbnb's marketing / hype / buzz that has been carefully choreographed to maximize their valuation. And to this, I congratulate Airbnb on their latest success, and to a dance well done.

It's a fallacy to complain that Airbnb is a new idea or not. It doesn't matter if they are a new idea! It only matters how much business they are driving.
A little off topics, vrbo was bought by homeaway, which recently filed to go public. Their whole model was to acquire every competitor and sort of monopolize the vacation rental market. I'm guessing they've probably made an offer on airbnb, but probably too big for them now...