[xchaotic]

"By the year 2025, 63% of the world’s population will be living in cities" I wonder if Covid will revise those trends. Where I live (rural), there's plenty of unused land that needs a lot let contortions to farm (cheaper) but is indeed further away from the mouths to be fed in cities. How is the math behind urban farms vs simply shipping food into the city?

[davehcker]

True, but I can't really predict the outcome due to covid. Just saw Dubai post-covid-onset, and to my eyes, nothing has changed much from food-supply-chain side.

I personally believe that permaculture would actually be the best solution overall, but our modern economy's pace and expectations would always keep such methods at bay. But at the same time, for leafy produce, and herbs, I think proper vertical farming would not only make it more affordable but also sustainable too. For the math, the rough estimates are production per m^2 (2-4kg on ground vs 70-400kg indoor farm), 10% lettuce in solid won't see the dining table i.e. they'd die, here there's no loss, off-season non-perennial produce, no problem for a vertical farm, the expenses on operations change too. Overall, if done properly, a very high-tech vertical farm should be able to break even in 2-3 yrs, even assuming a sales at no premium (which is very easy given the high-quality) i.e. at the shipped food i.e. the status-quo. But once people get used to the high-quality, and wholesalers get to enjoy the short supply chain due to indoor farms, I think the remote once will face a fierce competition, at least for select crops.

[fakedang]

> Just saw Dubai post-covid-onset, and to my eyes, nothing has changed much from food-supply-chain side.

Forget Dubai, it's natural that a city in the desert that relies on tourism way too much will keep itself open. Government even mandated schools to open (no one's sending their kids, except the really desperate parents), mandated malls to stay open and cancel temperature checks, mandated employers to open up offices. They just recently closed up and put in all restrictions once again (although not European levels).

I think a lot of countries will see shifts from major cities to cheaper cities (as long as they are safer and have basic services). The only reason people (like my parents) are still staying in Dubai is because it has gotten cheaper - rents are falling, home prices are falling, there is a visible glut, and it's a buyer's market right now.

[marcosdumay]

> I wonder if Covid will revise those trends.

I imagine COVID may possibly have an impact on our megacities trend (even though it had many dying signals already), but I don't believe it may push people into rural areas. Rural life isn't for everybody.

[DennisP]

Rural areas are getting slammed pretty hard by covid. I don't think that will put the brakes on urbanization all that much.

[xchaotic]

perhaps you're looking at US? Generally I see a trend of people moving back to the countryside as remote work is by default now. London, UK is pretty empty too - all the restaurants and offices closed - means all the food that used to be consumed inside the city is now eaten somewhere in the commuter belt. That's a major shift...

[blaser-waffle]

That's do to a comparatively lower rate of mask usage and fewer medical resources.

[CodeGlitch]

I think the advantage is more in the use of far less water and virtually no pesticides - 2 things which will become more important as the climate changes.

[rorykoehler]

There are other considerations at play. We need to rewild nature and minimise human footprint if we want to keep the world livable.