Sure, and we still research Gravity today. That doesn't mean we're guessing a ball will drop when released the same as it always has, now does it? At some point you do know what you're talking about, to a degree of certainty beyond "winging it", at any rate.
I find it funny someone downvoted my comment above. They must imagine we really don't know anything about anything. Perhaps we should just throw out all scientific experimentation, proofs, textbooks, etc. ever done and pretend the universe is actually working according to Dr. Seuss type principles. It's just as likely, right? </sarcasm>
Don't know why you were downvoted, it's a decent point you make. There are people who dedicated their entire life to an idea or ideal, and succeed _that_ way.
Perhaps it's useful to distinguish between "entrepreneurial" success-stories and achievements like Einstein's
Well, yeah, I might give him some slack if he limited it to entrepreneurial success, although I still wouldn't agree with it. He contends the entrepreneurs behind Club Penguin (sold to Disney) or Mint (sold to Intuit) -- or to go old-school, Berkshire Hathaway -- "winged" their way to success.
But he doesn't stop there:
Even Fortune 500 CEOs, Nobel Prize winners, and U.S. presidents — all are really good at winging it.
Proclaiming Nobel Prize winners in fields like Chemistry or Physics are "winging it" is, frankly, uninformed and insulting.
Yes, I didn't say all entrepreneurs have a clear idea of what they want to do, how they will do it, and how it's likely to come out -- many clearly don't. However, that's not always the case. I believe Club Penguin, a site that clearly targeted a demographic of youth, and Mint which targeted personal finance, are examples of companies set up from day one with a clear idea of what they were trying to accomplish.
I think you're missing the point of his argument. It isn't that we don't know anything, or that we cannot know anything. It is simply that people who are successful do not know how they became successful. Even the work of someone like Einstein is subject to the vagaries of chance; it's entirely possible that had he not been inspired by some trivial incident in his life, he might never have had the insight that led to relativity. The author may overstate the argument, but his fundamental point is sound.
people who are successful do not know how they became successful.
I'm afraid I don't follow. You're saying Warren Buffet, arguably the greatest investor of all time, doesn't know how he became successful? Or that some random chance gave him his uncanny investment insight? If that's the case why should we bother trying to control our lives at all? Why don't we just walk around with our eyes shut and hope luck drops into our lap?
You're saying Warren Buffet, arguably the greatest investor of all time, doesn't know how he became successful?
Yes.
Or that some random chance gave him his uncanny investment insight?
Possibly. The point is neither we, nor he, know.
[W]hy should we bother trying to control our lives at all?
A good question. Without getting into philosophical questions of free will, I suspect the pragmatic answer is that there is at least a weak correlation between the publicized 'formula' for success and actual success, for the same reason that most lottery winners are repeat buyers. By doing something, you expose yourself to fate. And generally, any activity we can afford to keep doing will at least permit us to make a living, which is the outcome for most. After all, we can't all be Warren Buffet---not even the Warren Buffets of the world.
Generally something along the lines of 'work hard, work smart, be persistent.'
Why is Warren Buffet the only one with his level of investment success?
No one knows; that's the point of the article. It could be pure chance. Put 1000 people in a room and have them each flip a coin for double or nothing, and in the end you will likely have a person who has made 1000x their original investment. Should we laud the winner's coin-flipping ability?
So, if I understand you correctly, you're suggesting that before Warren Buffet was even born, he was destined to become the successful investor we know? Further, that he shouldn't take any credit for thinking through all his decisions and coming up with the more profitable choice enough to substantially beat out millions of other investors?
To answer your question, no, we don't laud the winner's coin flipping ability, because, in the absence of cheating, the person's actions and decisions don't influence the outcome. All participants have an exactly equal chance at being the end winner, and nothing will change that. However, some savvy investors, like Warren Buffet, are able to ensure they win over others using the stock market; the difference being that their decision making does directly influence whether they "win" or "lose".
It seems to me you're suggesting investors could use coin flipping to make all investment decisions, and that makes as much sense as trying to decide by other means, since they don't know what they are doing anyway. Correct?