[vannevar]

I think you're missing the point of his argument. It isn't that we don't know anything, or that we cannot know anything. It is simply that people who are successful do not know how they became successful. Even the work of someone like Einstein is subject to the vagaries of chance; it's entirely possible that had he not been inspired by some trivial incident in his life, he might never have had the insight that led to relativity. The author may overstate the argument, but his fundamental point is sound.

[jeromec]

people who are successful do not know how they became successful.

I'm afraid I don't follow. You're saying Warren Buffet, arguably the greatest investor of all time, doesn't know how he became successful? Or that some random chance gave him his uncanny investment insight? If that's the case why should we bother trying to control our lives at all? Why don't we just walk around with our eyes shut and hope luck drops into our lap?

[vannevar]

You're saying Warren Buffet, arguably the greatest investor of all time, doesn't know how he became successful?

Yes.

Or that some random chance gave him his uncanny investment insight?

Possibly. The point is neither we, nor he, know.

[W]hy should we bother trying to control our lives at all?

A good question. Without getting into philosophical questions of free will, I suspect the pragmatic answer is that there is at least a weak correlation between the publicized 'formula' for success and actual success, for the same reason that most lottery winners are repeat buyers. By doing something, you expose yourself to fate. And generally, any activity we can afford to keep doing will at least permit us to make a living, which is the outcome for most. After all, we can't all be Warren Buffet---not even the Warren Buffets of the world.

[jeromec]

I suspect the pragmatic answer is that there is at least a weak correlation between the publicized 'formula' for success and actual success

What is the publicized formula for success?

By doing something, you expose yourself to fate.

There are millions that do something with the stock market every week. Why is Warren Buffet the only one with his level of investment success?

[vannevar]

What is the publicized formula for success?

Generally something along the lines of 'work hard, work smart, be persistent.'

Why is Warren Buffet the only one with his level of investment success?

No one knows; that's the point of the article. It could be pure chance. Put 1000 people in a room and have them each flip a coin for double or nothing, and in the end you will likely have a person who has made 1000x their original investment. Should we laud the winner's coin-flipping ability?

[jeromec]

So, if I understand you correctly, you're suggesting that before Warren Buffet was even born, he was destined to become the successful investor we know? Further, that he shouldn't take any credit for thinking through all his decisions and coming up with the more profitable choice enough to substantially beat out millions of other investors?

To answer your question, no, we don't laud the winner's coin flipping ability, because, in the absence of cheating, the person's actions and decisions don't influence the outcome. All participants have an exactly equal chance at being the end winner, and nothing will change that. However, some savvy investors, like Warren Buffet, are able to ensure they win over others using the stock market; the difference being that their decision making does directly influence whether they "win" or "lose".

It seems to me you're suggesting investors could use coin flipping to make all investment decisions, and that makes as much sense as trying to decide by other means, since they don't know what they are doing anyway. Correct?

[vannevar]

I said nothing about pre-destination, and Warren Buffet is free to take as much credit as he likes. I'm supporting the gist of the article, which is that complex phenomena like economic systems are much more like coin flipping than they are like dropping an object and predicting it will hit the ground. Contrary to what you say, the coin-flipper's actions and decisions do influence the outcome: he has to decide to keep playing, and he has to decide whether to call heads or tails. The difference is that the system is comparatively simple, so we easily see that chance alone determines the outcome. Barring cheating or a systematically biased coin, we can't imagine how it could be anything other than luck. On the other hand, investments are wrapped in much more complexity, and it's easier to imagine that there are skills that could confer an advantage, even if there aren't.

[Y]ou're suggesting investors could use coin flipping to make all investment decisions, and that makes as much sense as trying to decide by other means...

I'm not suggesting it, but now that you mention it there are some studies that do. I suspect there are real investment skills that can be learned and applied, much the same way a blackjack card counter gains a small edge that can be exploited over time.