[jacurtis]

Well my experience talking to all the local bike shops in my area is that they actually have less inventory to sell than previous years, compounded with the problem of increased demand.

My local shop that is a Trek Dealer said last October that they were only just starting to get the bikes that they ordered back in February (pre-pandemic). Meaning that their standard inventory for summer never arrived. I just talked to this shop again this weekend because I was in there for ski service (like many bike shops in the Rocky Mountains, they are ski shops in the winter and bike shops in the summer), and the guy showed me their list of pending orders. They are expecting an order of bikes from Trek by the end of January that will complete the order they placed LAST APRIL. So at least for Trek, that is how far behind they are.

I have also visited 2 different dealers that sell Specialized ("Specialized" is the brand name). One of them (the smaller one) told me that they have $100,000 worth of bikes and accessories on order and have been waiting for over 5 months on them to arrive with no update on any changes.

The other Specialized Dealer is a big dealer in this area and they only have one bike in stock, a Peter Sagan edition Race Bike priced around $10k and 2 child sized bikes. They said they are still waiting for their orders from April to arrive.

One good sign was from a local shop that sells Santa Cruz Mountain Bikes. They apparently are only about 2 months behind. But that shop has still struggled to keep bikes in stock. So their demo fleet for people to take up to the ski resort (for downhill mountain biking) last summer was all previous model-year bikes because they couldn't set aside bikes for their demo fleet because they were selling as fast as they arrived. In fact he told me that they have been selling bikes off a waiting list for people 4-5 states away who are driving 12-24 straight hours to pick up bikes because this shop has been able to keep some in stock.

[cycomanic]

One of the aspects that really exacerbated the situation for road bikes was that Shimano (by far the biggest component manufacturer) was expected to release their new top of the line group-set this year.

Because they typically introduce new technology which is somewhat incompatible with previous generations (they were expected to go to 2x12 speed like the two other manufacturers), everyone was holding off on orders and the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019.

The manufacturers also expected a low volume year, hence they did not order that many components and frames either, so everyone was caught off-guard when the pandemic hit.

[ubermonkey]

"Because they typically introduce new technology which is somewhat incompatible with previous generations"

Just to clarify:

He doesn't meant that each year's new kit is incompatible with last year's. He just means that major generational changes introduce incompatibilities.

11-speed cassettes have been the rule for most new road bikes for quite some time now, but obviously when it was introduced it wasn't compatible with 10-speed systems.

11 has been around for a while now. Shimano has 3 "serious" tiers of road bike components: Dura Ace, Ultegra, and 105 at the "bottom". (The bottom here is the bottom of serious cycling, not the bottom of cycling generally; the lowest 105-equipped bike in Specialized's road line is $1,400 MSRP.)

When I bought a bike in late 2014, Dura Ace and Ultegra were 11-speed, but 105 was still 10. Then, for a while, everything was 11. You could (and can) mix and match within Shimano or within SRAM as long as everything was 11 speed (with the exception that you can't mix mechanical derailleurs and electronic shifters, or vice versa).

A year or two ago, SRAM introduced a new 12-speed electronic-only group at its high end ("RED"), which has since filtered down to its middle-grade ("Force"). SRAM still makes 11-speed mechanical and, I think, still makes parts for its first electronic setup ("eTap") which was 11-speed.

Shimano is behind, and still hasn't introduced a 12-speed system, but there's a lot of anticipation for it, which is what OP is referring to.

(I should also note for the record that Shimano still makes and sells lower-grade component groups, too; the cheapest road bike on the Specialized web site is intro level Allez at just $900. It comes with an 8-speed Shimano groupset called Claris, which is currently Shimano's bottom-of-the-line. They also still make a 9-speed (Sora) and a 10-speed (Tiagra).)

[cycomanic]

Thanks for adding to this. You're right that I didn't mean to imply that Shimano and others make old kit obsolete very quickly. I would even argue Shimano and Campagnolo (SRAM is still a bit unclear) have been quite good with keeping even old groups supplied with parts etc..

However, people who buy a new high-end bikes are generally reluctant to get a bike with a groupset that will not be the the latest in less than a years time. Especially because traditionally you could get extremely good deals on bikes with the old groupsets once the new one came out.

[ubermonkey]

I mean, given the opportunity to be nerdy about something...

I have a vague sense that the move through 9 and 10 to 11 speed was pretty quick, and that the moment of effective 11-speed hegemony has been long and really shows no sign of truly fading, but I have only a few points to go on.

The biggest one is that SRAM has kept its 12-speed stuff segregated. They still sell mechanical Red and Force in 11, and the web site still shows Red eTap (the 11-speed electronic groupset). All the 12-speed stuff is at another tier and uses the "AXS" suffix for branding.

Nobody knows yet what Shimano will do. Campy is really on its own in lots of ways (I dunno about you, but in my circles riding Campy is mostly a way to say "I have lots of discretionary income and/or a very understanding spouse").

My neighbor is a bike tinkerer and serious rider. He's moved a couple of his bikes to AXS, but only by doing some wheeling/dealing on eBay & whatnot. It does not appear to have made him materially faster. ;)

I was itching for an upgrade on my bike back in the spring, and found the upgrade price for even Force AXS really offputting. I ended up putting Red eTap on, and have REALLY loved it, especially at < 1/2 the cost. I didn't really even consider the Shimano stuff, as I DRASTICALLY prefer the SRAM cockpit interface -- to say nothing of the simpler install, as eTap is wireless.

[cycomanic]

Great, another cycling geek!

I just looked this up and on DA both 9 and 10 speed lasted 8 years, so not faster than the move to 12 speed (btw it is pretty much confirmed that both Ultegra and DA will move to 12 speed this year, somewhat different to the usual cycle which had a 1-2 year delay for Ultegra to adopt DA tech).

Regarding Campagnolo, it's unfortunate that they have the reputation of being expensive. I think one reason for this is that they hardly do any OEM, so you have to build your own bike, which often ends up more expensive. In particular if you otherwise buy bikes when they are on sale. The other reason is because the groups don't really compare with the Shimano and SRAM groups, i.e. the equivalent to Ultegra is probably Potenza not Chorus, and to DA and RED it's probably Record (this isn't helped by the fact that Campa now only does SR in electronic).

I've recently after many years riding shimano moved back to campa (I got an awesome deal on a SR-EPS equipped bike) and I have to say it is an awesome groupset. From all I have read, especially if you want mechanical Campa super-record and record is what to get.

Regarding SRAM AXS, I want to like them, but I've heard about way to many quality control problems (Force AXS front derailleur chainsuck has been widely reported) , Red Etap was much better.

That said, I don't think any groupset will make you substantially faster.

[ubermonkey]

Dealers for Trek and Specialized have not done as well here. I think this MAY be because those dealers are mostly all-in on whichever brand they carry. The shop I bought my Specialized Roubaix from in 2014, for example, HAS a very small number of non-Specialized bikes (maybe 4-6 AllCity plus a couple Moots), but the rest of the shop is ALL SPECIALIZED. You know what folks say about egg/basket redundancy.

The shop I mentioned that was clever and has done well as a result isn't a dealer for either. They carry BMC, Cervelo, Santa Cruz, Salsa, and some others, and they've managed to stay busy and stocked all year.