[cycomanic]

One of the aspects that really exacerbated the situation for road bikes was that Shimano (by far the biggest component manufacturer) was expected to release their new top of the line group-set this year.

Because they typically introduce new technology which is somewhat incompatible with previous generations (they were expected to go to 2x12 speed like the two other manufacturers), everyone was holding off on orders and the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019.

The manufacturers also expected a low volume year, hence they did not order that many components and frames either, so everyone was caught off-guard when the pandemic hit.

[ubermonkey]

"Because they typically introduce new technology which is somewhat incompatible with previous generations"

Just to clarify:

He doesn't meant that each year's new kit is incompatible with last year's. He just means that major generational changes introduce incompatibilities.

11-speed cassettes have been the rule for most new road bikes for quite some time now, but obviously when it was introduced it wasn't compatible with 10-speed systems.

11 has been around for a while now. Shimano has 3 "serious" tiers of road bike components: Dura Ace, Ultegra, and 105 at the "bottom". (The bottom here is the bottom of serious cycling, not the bottom of cycling generally; the lowest 105-equipped bike in Specialized's road line is $1,400 MSRP.)

When I bought a bike in late 2014, Dura Ace and Ultegra were 11-speed, but 105 was still 10. Then, for a while, everything was 11. You could (and can) mix and match within Shimano or within SRAM as long as everything was 11 speed (with the exception that you can't mix mechanical derailleurs and electronic shifters, or vice versa).

A year or two ago, SRAM introduced a new 12-speed electronic-only group at its high end ("RED"), which has since filtered down to its middle-grade ("Force"). SRAM still makes 11-speed mechanical and, I think, still makes parts for its first electronic setup ("eTap") which was 11-speed.

Shimano is behind, and still hasn't introduced a 12-speed system, but there's a lot of anticipation for it, which is what OP is referring to.

(I should also note for the record that Shimano still makes and sells lower-grade component groups, too; the cheapest road bike on the Specialized web site is intro level Allez at just $900. It comes with an 8-speed Shimano groupset called Claris, which is currently Shimano's bottom-of-the-line. They also still make a 9-speed (Sora) and a 10-speed (Tiagra).)

[cycomanic]

Thanks for adding to this. You're right that I didn't mean to imply that Shimano and others make old kit obsolete very quickly. I would even argue Shimano and Campagnolo (SRAM is still a bit unclear) have been quite good with keeping even old groups supplied with parts etc..

However, people who buy a new high-end bikes are generally reluctant to get a bike with a groupset that will not be the the latest in less than a years time. Especially because traditionally you could get extremely good deals on bikes with the old groupsets once the new one came out.

[ubermonkey]

I mean, given the opportunity to be nerdy about something...

I have a vague sense that the move through 9 and 10 to 11 speed was pretty quick, and that the moment of effective 11-speed hegemony has been long and really shows no sign of truly fading, but I have only a few points to go on.

The biggest one is that SRAM has kept its 12-speed stuff segregated. They still sell mechanical Red and Force in 11, and the web site still shows Red eTap (the 11-speed electronic groupset). All the 12-speed stuff is at another tier and uses the "AXS" suffix for branding.

Nobody knows yet what Shimano will do. Campy is really on its own in lots of ways (I dunno about you, but in my circles riding Campy is mostly a way to say "I have lots of discretionary income and/or a very understanding spouse").

My neighbor is a bike tinkerer and serious rider. He's moved a couple of his bikes to AXS, but only by doing some wheeling/dealing on eBay & whatnot. It does not appear to have made him materially faster. ;)

I was itching for an upgrade on my bike back in the spring, and found the upgrade price for even Force AXS really offputting. I ended up putting Red eTap on, and have REALLY loved it, especially at < 1/2 the cost. I didn't really even consider the Shimano stuff, as I DRASTICALLY prefer the SRAM cockpit interface -- to say nothing of the simpler install, as eTap is wireless.

[cycomanic]

Great, another cycling geek!

I just looked this up and on DA both 9 and 10 speed lasted 8 years, so not faster than the move to 12 speed (btw it is pretty much confirmed that both Ultegra and DA will move to 12 speed this year, somewhat different to the usual cycle which had a 1-2 year delay for Ultegra to adopt DA tech).

Regarding Campagnolo, it's unfortunate that they have the reputation of being expensive. I think one reason for this is that they hardly do any OEM, so you have to build your own bike, which often ends up more expensive. In particular if you otherwise buy bikes when they are on sale. The other reason is because the groups don't really compare with the Shimano and SRAM groups, i.e. the equivalent to Ultegra is probably Potenza not Chorus, and to DA and RED it's probably Record (this isn't helped by the fact that Campa now only does SR in electronic).

I've recently after many years riding shimano moved back to campa (I got an awesome deal on a SR-EPS equipped bike) and I have to say it is an awesome groupset. From all I have read, especially if you want mechanical Campa super-record and record is what to get.

Regarding SRAM AXS, I want to like them, but I've heard about way to many quality control problems (Force AXS front derailleur chainsuck has been widely reported) , Red Etap was much better.

That said, I don't think any groupset will make you substantially faster.