Unfortunately, this talking point (one I’ve put to good use over the last 20 years) is on shakier ground recently. Crime rates have have been rising for several years now in many U.S. cities and in some cases they’ve eclipsed the 90s highs.
Please don’t ask people if they’ve read the article. It’s obnoxious.
And, no, it isn’t just 2020. The homicide rate in St. Louis bottomed out in 2003 at a rate of 21.8 per 100k. By 2014 it had more than doubled to 49.9. By 2015 it had nearly tripled to 59.3 per 100k.
And it’s even higher now. It’ll end this year in the 70s per 100k, eclipsing the 1993 high. It’s been a steady march up from the bottom.
I don't know but my money is on inequality. All the countries with high levels of inequality have this problem.
For example Eastern European countries generally have moderate to low inequality levels and low GDP per capita. South American countries have high to verify high inequality and comparable GDPs per capita. Eastern Europe is much safer statistically than South America.
These charts very clearly show an uptick in the nationwide homicide rate starting in 2014. It then levels off. And then there’s a big jump again this year.
This is entirely consistent with my claim that rates are way up nationwide and that they started going up before 2020.
St. Louis is an interesting case because while their homicide rate (not overall violent crime, which is still way down, like every other city) approaches record highs, their homicide clearance rate has never been worse. The St. Louis cops are just historically bad at their job, which might not generalize to a trend.
Numbers are spiking for 2020.
I wonder why? A global pandemic, mass unemployment, lockdowns, political tensions.