[oblio]

Have you read your own article?

Numbers are spiking for 2020.

I wonder why? A global pandemic, mass unemployment, lockdowns, political tensions.

[dionidium]

Please don’t ask people if they’ve read the article. It’s obnoxious.

And, no, it isn’t just 2020. The homicide rate in St. Louis bottomed out in 2003 at a rate of 21.8 per 100k. By 2014 it had more than doubled to 49.9. By 2015 it had nearly tripled to 59.3 per 100k.

And it’s even higher now. It’ll end this year in the 70s per 100k, eclipsing the 1993 high. It’s been a steady march up from the bottom.

And the trend is similar in other cities.

Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_St._Louis

[oblio]

You kept spamming the same comment.

Regarding crime, there is one obvious answer. Inequality. The US Gini coefficient has been going up for 3 decades, I think.

The reduction effect from getting rid of leaded gasoline could only outweigh this for so long...

Poor people commit more crimes and you're starting to have more and more poor people.

[dionidium]

“It’s uniquely lead.”

Maybe, but rates are back up decades after we banned lead.

“Ok, well it’s uniquely the St. Louis police.”

Nope, sorry. Rates are up everywhere.

“Well then it’s just 2020! What a weird year!”

Nope. Rates have been rising for years.

“Ah, well then it’s obviously inequality.”

Why do people think not only that there has to be an immediate and obvious explanation for this trend, but also that they know exactly what it is?

For that matter, why are people so anxious to explain this away? It’s very confusing.

The fact is we don’t know why it’s happening. It’s complicated. It’s definitely happening. And we don’t know why. It’s ok to say, “I don’t know.”

[oblio]

I don't know but my money is on inequality. All the countries with high levels of inequality have this problem.

For example Eastern European countries generally have moderate to low inequality levels and low GDP per capita. South American countries have high to verify high inequality and comparable GDPs per capita. Eastern Europe is much safer statistically than South America.

Ignore this at your own peril...