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by JetSetWilly 2009 days ago
> Will the vaccines basically be voided by this?

It has been around since September - if vaccines were voided it would have shown up in trials. It seems the human immune system is pretty smart and manufactures many different antibodies against many different sites on the spike protein. So even if some parts of the spike protein mutate, you still have antibodies that will do the job.

- Is it less lethal? Could it create more general immunity in communities without killing?

It might be - it carries one mutation (a deletion) on a part of the genome that helps it evade the host immune system - but more data is needed. If it was less lethal that is a mechanism that can help it spread - people are asymptomatic for longer, or feel better so are out and about instead of in their bed. But although I have seen rumours on this there's nothing definite and no data.

- Has is spread yet? I've read the UK gov knew about this in october...

It has been detected in Denmark as well. The UK - especially obviously London where it is prevalent - is highly globally connected. This variant will be everywhere in the world now in small amounts and if it does spread better it is just a matter of time. The UK does a LOT of genome sequencing compares to most countries so it is well equipped to detect the emergence of new strains and their spread.

2 comments

> It has been around since September - if vaccines were voided it would have shown up in trials.

The variant didn't reach a significant proportion of infections until November. Evaluation of the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine was done in July and August. We don't have data to understand how effective the Pfizer vaccine is against this variant yet.

This should be the official position when communicating this information. There simply is not enough data at this point.

I was really shocked to read German Minister statements saying the vacine is still effective for this variant. Sure theoretical the spike is majority unchanged but there is no evidence or data for a government official to make such an absolute statement.

The official message from the UK government when they announced concern about this new strain was "we have no evidence to suggest that the Pfizer vaccine is not just as effective against this new strain". Somehow that gets twisted by some people into "we believe the vaccine is just as effective against this new strain". I think it's party due to not wanting to appear to be doomsaying but also very misleading in terms of communicating the facts.
Notice the word choice: “we have no evidence...” the answer is actually “we don’t know” because we haven’t studied it. There’s a term for this type of communication as it’s quite common but the name escapes me..
My criticism was of Jens Spahn, Germany's Health minister. Claiming there was no evidence that the vacine would not be effective. [0] Which although true sounds incredibly misleading taking into the account the data we currently don't have.

[0] https://metro.co.uk/2020/12/20/covid-vaccines-still-effectiv...

I thought Spahns full statement was reasonable. Deferring to what the health organizations report to him, saying that that "would be very good news" (would be, not is), emphasizing multiple times that this is "as of now, sunday evening". If you hear that and take away "we're definitively safe" ...

(Of course I can't judge the biology and if that actually accurately represented the expert opinion behind it, but to me it communicated clearly enough that this isn't a certain claim, but reflecting a current snapshot of something that's actively looked at)

Voided as a term doesn’t make sense. The vaccine will be less effective for sure, correlated to the distribution of the variant vs. the original strain in the population.
It's not really clear how the vaccine and variant will interact. It can be the case that the vaccine confers strong immunity against the variant or that it doesn't confer any immunity at all, it's not necessarily predictable or linear.

That said, what I've seen immunologists saying is that they expect the vaccine to still work well, because they wouldn't expect months of mutations to add up to the variant escaping the vaccine.