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by jsnell
2019 days ago
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You claimed: ... around 370 were PCR positive ... Then you quoted from the paper: ... small proportion of participants were seropositive ... Which is in direct conflict. The latter is saying they had positive antibody tests. Not PCR tests. In fact a lot of those were most likely just false positives, from a antibody test that "only" had a 99% specificity. Which is most of them. |
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The quote you requoted only partially lacked the end: "at baseline": "A small proportion of participants were seropositive at baseline" which doesn't say anything about the reinfection.
It's also surely not antibody test, NAAT mentioned is "nucleic acid amplification test" a test that tests for the presence of virus' RNA, not antibodies. Also: false positive while symptomatic is significantly less probable than just the probability of false positive.
If your point is that you don't believe they were seropositive at all at baseline, fine, that's can be said, it would be possible, and that is surely not 100% sure.
The point is still, there's no proof that the reinfections are "rare." And from what is known about another human coronaviruses reinfections do occur each year.
Edit, answer to below: yes, I tried to understand what you say, the last two paragraphs I wrote after I wrote the start. The NAAT is the only test procedure mentioned in the same quote where you took only the first few words. I do admit wrongly remembering the nature of the test at the baseline. It has sense as it would be less probable to have somebody participating in the study at the time when he should be in isolation.