| No conflict: The infection rate is 2% from those starting not infected. The infection rate is 1% for those who started as infected and later tested positive again, after more weeks. That's only twice less common than normal infection, which is a lot. The quote you requoted only partially lacked the end: "at baseline": "A small proportion of participants were seropositive at baseline" which doesn't say anything about the reinfection. It's also surely not antibody test, NAAT mentioned is "nucleic acid amplification test" a test that tests for the presence of virus' RNA, not antibodies. Also: false positive while symptomatic is significantly less probable than just the probability of false positive. If your point is that you don't believe they were seropositive at all at baseline, fine, that's can be said, it would be possible, and that is surely not 100% sure. The point is still, there's no proof that the reinfections are "rare." And from what is known about another human coronaviruses reinfections do occur each year. Edit, answer to below: yes, I tried to understand what you say, the last two paragraphs I wrote after I wrote the start. The NAAT is the only test procedure mentioned in the same quote where you took only the first few words. I do admit wrongly remembering the nature of the test at the baseline. It has sense as it would be less probable to have somebody participating in the study at the time when he should be in isolation. |
And I don't understand why you're pulling in the NAAT test from that quote. It is how the three people tested positive later, after being infected. It is not about the 370 people who were seropositive at the baseline.