[wpietri]

No, it's like saying gold isn't scarce because anybody with a bee in their bonnet can launch "Gold 2.0" and create their own supply. Which is definitely not true for gold, but is demonstrably true for cryptocurrencies.

I grant that crypocurrency fans will look at me weird, which I'm fine with. But economists (and most others) won't, because they understand that substitutability [1] affects scarcity.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Substitute_good

[keymone]

Well if you believe any fork of bitcoin is bitcoin I have lots of cheap bitcoin to sell to you.

There’s an attribute that you can’t substitute - chain difficulty. I’ll let you figure out the rest.

[wpietri]

Again, from a marketing perspective, it's not clear that matters. For a great number of cryptocurrency "investors", they're just buying magic beans. A fine piece of evidence comes from CNN today that digital currencies are effectively substitutable: https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/03/investing/bitcoin-ethereum-xr...

As Bitcoin itself proved, plenty of people will buy into a commodity because it's new and hot, and not because of any fundamental analysis of its value. In that sense, Bitcoin is not in any way scarce.

[keymone]

How many more years of clear correlation between value and chain difficulty must pass for you to recognize that there’s something in there?

Also, bitcoin is scarce because it’s hard to get more of it, what the hell is your definition of scarcity? It seems to change from one comment to another.

[wpietri]

Bitcoin has not proven market value beyond a speculative instrument and a vehicle for financial crime. In particular, it has failed in its original goal to be peer-to-peer electronic cash. I hope real value emerges someday, but after a decade's track record, I don't expect it.

My definition of scarcity is when the people in the market to buy cannot easily get more of the thing that they want. For people just wanting to speculate, other cryptocurrencies are substitutable. And given how easy it is to start a cryptocurrency, the supply is effectively infinite.

And just to be clear, it's not Bitcoin in specific I'm concerned about. I think the same thing about all the cryptocurrencies, although I have more hope for other ones to eventually evolve toward delivering value.

[keymone]

> Bitcoin has not proven market value beyond a speculative instrument and a vehicle for financial crime. In particular, it has failed in its original goal to be peer-to-peer electronic cash.

Very much has. Wild speculation moved on from bitcoin to altcoins circa 2015, from altcoins to ico in 2017 and from ico to defi in 2019. Bitcoin is old and boring.

Vehicle for financial crime - that’s just ridiculous, not even bothering to respond. Go google what fines banks paid in recent decade for financial crimes before claiming this bs.

And bitcoin is p2p cash for all intents and purposes. Ticks all the boxes for me.

> people in the market to buy cannot easily get more of the thing that they want

Yeah, you can’t get more bitcoin, it’s scarce.

> For people just wanting to speculate, other cryptocurrencies are substitutable.

Well that’s a dumb definition of scarcity, unless you also think gold isn’t scarce because there are tons of substitute metals for purposes of speculation on the market.

[wpietri]

Nah. Bitcoin speculation is still popular, as any popular press search for "Bitcoin" will show you. People are buying in because they hope the price will go up.

I appreciate you not responding on crime, as that saves me some time.

I can believe Bitcoin "ticks the boxes" for ardent Bitcoin fans, but that doesn't say much about the rest of the world. Bitcoin did not end up being cash in the common sense of the term. E.g.: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/16/nyregion/new-york-today-l...

For speculation, yes, some metals are substitutable. Silver is a popular alternative to gold. To a lesser extent, platinum, palladium, and rhodium. If you don't believe me, just go look at some of the sites and vendors that cater to gold bugs. And I'll note that Bitcoin has often been called "digital gold" and has drawn plenty of interest from the same kinds of people who speculate in gold, so Bitcoin can also be a substitute.