[pedrocr]

How do you figure that? Taking the example of Germany, their numbers of new cases and new deaths from the same source are ~2x less than the US per population. By what metric is Germany doing much worse than the USA right now?

[esja]

Germany is basically the best case for Europe and had 199 deaths today, with a quarter the population of the US (who had 485 deaths).

* 506 deaths in France (a fifth of the US population) * 213 in the UK (equiv. to 1000/day in the US) * Switzerland tracking at 100 deaths a day, equivalent to over 4000/day in the US * 162 deaths in Czechia, equiv. to 5346/day in the US

Look it up yourself:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/switzerlan... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-repu...

[dredmorbius]

EU cases started climbing earlier than the US, and new daily cases have peaked and are descending.

Plotted here, 1 September to present, are the largest EU states: France, Spain, UK, Germany, and Italy, vs. US. (The tool is capped at five comparisons). Shown are new daily cases, normed to population, 14 day smoothing (to clarify trend).

https://rys.io/covid/#delta,linear,permillion,date,average:1...

Substitute otheer countries as you prefer. Note that Poland, Czechia, and Switzerland have comparatively small populations (38m for Poland v. 84m for Germany).

US cases are still climbing, EU are falling. France peaked on 2 November, 14 days ago, deaths attributed to those cases are just now being reported, but willdecrease rapidly.

Meantime US cases are still growing exponentially, with over 1 million new cases (at a 3% CFR) in the past week alone.

Calling the US situation "better" than Europe is ignoring the inevitable tragedy facing the US. As with this past spring, a few weeks lag on the epidemic curve can not be represented as evidence of superior situation. The future is here, it's just distributed more in Europe than the US presently. The US will get what's due it within 2-3 weeks, possibly sooner.

[esja]

We're just discussing different things. I'm talking about the number of deaths occurring right now in Europe, as a response to the original comment I replied to. You've added a lot of context about the number of cases and what's likely to happen in future. I don't disagree with any of that.

[dredmorbius]

Aperocky's comment you were initially responding to asserted, correctly, that "The worst hit place right now is the ~United States of America."

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25113115

You chose to redefine "worst hit", after two rounds of failing to clarify your criterion, as "deaths today".

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25117167

That basis entirely dismisses the facts that:

1. Cases today translate directly to deaths in the 2--4 week future, at a best-case rate of 0.5% CFR and far more plausibly 1.5--3% CFR, based on present reported cases.[1]

2. US new cases per capita are at least on par if not worse than Europes's.

3. EU daily case rates are trending at worst flat, and are generally decreasing.

4. US case rates are rising, at an acellerating rate.

The US today reports 158,363 new cases (7-day average), and a 3% CFR. In ~2--3 weeks, likely daily deaths will be 2,375--4,750, or 7.5--15 per million.[2]

Germany, to use your favoured example, reports 18,363 new cases (7-day average), and a 2% CFR. In ~2--3 weeks, likely daily deaths will be 367--550, 4.4--6.6 per million.[3]

All Europe reports ~220,000 new daily cases (16 Nov 2020, not smoothed). in ~2--3 weeks, likely daily deaths will be 3,300--6,600, 4.4--8.8 per million.[4]

To provide an analogy, you're laughing at Europe being in a ditch whilst the US is racing toward a cliff's edge. Assessments of present health or wealth must include obvious future consequences or risks. You entirely ignore these, and reframed the initial criterion to do so.

Your analysis suffers from presentism and risk blindness and is utterly flawed.

________________________________

Notes:

1. I'll ignore the fact that reported fatalities undercount true COVID-19 fatalities as demonstrated by overall excess deaths by about 30% per an August 2020 New York Times report and other independent studies and data.

2. Using 1.5--3% CFR.

3. Also using 1.5%--35 CFR, despite Germany's lower experienced CFR.

4. Again at 1.5--3% CFR. Based on reported values, whic undercounts recoveries, experienced CFR is ~4%.

[esja]

I did not "redefine" or "reframe" anything. From the beginning I chose to use recent daily deaths per capita as my measure of how badly a country is being hit by COVID "right now". It is true that my first response did not make this explicit, and in retrospect I should have done so. Please read all my comments charitably, as I have done with yours.

I have already agreed that the measures you are using are also valid and that the trends are bad. However your points 1-4 are entirely about cases, trends, and the future, which has nothing to do with the point I made.

Accusing me of "laughing at Europe" is the sort of toxic rhetoric which doesn't belong on HN and frankly says more about you than it does about my argument. I live in one of the worst-hit yet most-developed countries, and some of our ICUs have run out of beds.

[dredmorbius]

From the beginning...

If by "beginning" you mean two replies into the discussion.

I have already agreed that the measures you are using...

Then why continue to argue against them?

[pedrocr]

I did look it up myself. I used the 7 day moving average to get more stable results and Germany is 2x better than the US in new cases/deaths per million right now even while having 3 to 5x less cases/death in total since the start which means it also has a more vulnerable population at this point. I didn't pick Germany, you did, and claimed it was "much worse". And it's not the best case, there are several countries doing better or much better than Germany.

As for the other examples Europe is now having a second wave after successfully suppressing the first one. The US has never suppressed the pandemic, or at best is now at a third wave, and thus has a currently less susceptible population from all the cases and deaths it has already had. And even then it's still having more new cases and new deaths than the well managed countries in Europe (Germany, Norway, Finland, Denmark, etc). It's hardly in a better situation right now as you claim. The worst countries in Europe are at the US accumulated average, some are catching up but the US is also spiking right now.

[esja]

Over the past few weeks (i.e. right now), the number of deaths per capita in the European country I live in is far higher than the number of deaths per capita in the USA. Some of the best hospitals on Earth are running out of ICU beds. My country is not alone in this, as you can see in the numbers I provided. This is the context for my response to the original commenter.

You have a different way of measuring the problem and you are extrapolating into the future, and that is also fine. We are just making different points.

[pedrocr]

I'm not measuring different things. I've used initially the definition that seemed most appropriate to me as you didn't provide any and then the definition you chose. You're now using as an example an unnamed country. With the examples you gave it wasn't true in either of the metrics.

[esja]

I've been using daily deaths per capita and all the examples are correct by that metric.

Switzerland today:

- 4560 lab confirmed cases - 19'495 tests - 23,4% positivity rate - 299 hospitalised - 142 deaths

That's equivalent to 5400 deaths occurring today in the USA.

In recent days the USA had the following deaths: 740, 656, 1258, 1471, 1185.

So by this measure things are FOUR OR FIVE TIMES AS BAD in Switzerland as they are in the USA.

[pedrocr]

I've already given you the numbers for Germany which was your other example. It is actually 2x better than the US. Your claim was "most of highly-developed Europe". Germany isn't even the best case and the total EU metric also says the opposite.