[esja]

We're just discussing different things. I'm talking about the number of deaths occurring right now in Europe, as a response to the original comment I replied to. You've added a lot of context about the number of cases and what's likely to happen in future. I don't disagree with any of that.

[dredmorbius]

Aperocky's comment you were initially responding to asserted, correctly, that "The worst hit place right now is the ~United States of America."

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25113115

You chose to redefine "worst hit", after two rounds of failing to clarify your criterion, as "deaths today".

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25117167

That basis entirely dismisses the facts that:

1. Cases today translate directly to deaths in the 2--4 week future, at a best-case rate of 0.5% CFR and far more plausibly 1.5--3% CFR, based on present reported cases.[1]

2. US new cases per capita are at least on par if not worse than Europes's.

3. EU daily case rates are trending at worst flat, and are generally decreasing.

4. US case rates are rising, at an acellerating rate.

The US today reports 158,363 new cases (7-day average), and a 3% CFR. In ~2--3 weeks, likely daily deaths will be 2,375--4,750, or 7.5--15 per million.[2]

Germany, to use your favoured example, reports 18,363 new cases (7-day average), and a 2% CFR. In ~2--3 weeks, likely daily deaths will be 367--550, 4.4--6.6 per million.[3]

All Europe reports ~220,000 new daily cases (16 Nov 2020, not smoothed). in ~2--3 weeks, likely daily deaths will be 3,300--6,600, 4.4--8.8 per million.[4]

To provide an analogy, you're laughing at Europe being in a ditch whilst the US is racing toward a cliff's edge. Assessments of present health or wealth must include obvious future consequences or risks. You entirely ignore these, and reframed the initial criterion to do so.

Your analysis suffers from presentism and risk blindness and is utterly flawed.

________________________________

Notes:

1. I'll ignore the fact that reported fatalities undercount true COVID-19 fatalities as demonstrated by overall excess deaths by about 30% per an August 2020 New York Times report and other independent studies and data.

2. Using 1.5--3% CFR.

3. Also using 1.5%--35 CFR, despite Germany's lower experienced CFR.

4. Again at 1.5--3% CFR. Based on reported values, whic undercounts recoveries, experienced CFR is ~4%.

[esja]

I did not "redefine" or "reframe" anything. From the beginning I chose to use recent daily deaths per capita as my measure of how badly a country is being hit by COVID "right now". It is true that my first response did not make this explicit, and in retrospect I should have done so. Please read all my comments charitably, as I have done with yours.

I have already agreed that the measures you are using are also valid and that the trends are bad. However your points 1-4 are entirely about cases, trends, and the future, which has nothing to do with the point I made.

Accusing me of "laughing at Europe" is the sort of toxic rhetoric which doesn't belong on HN and frankly says more about you than it does about my argument. I live in one of the worst-hit yet most-developed countries, and some of our ICUs have run out of beds.

[dredmorbius]

From the beginning...

If by "beginning" you mean two replies into the discussion.

I have already agreed that the measures you are using...

Then why continue to argue against them?

[esja]

"Beginning" means from the moment I conceived the idea in my mind. Again, please try interpreting things charitably, otherwise you will make poor assumptions and end up arguing against your own imagination.

If you re-read this thread you will see that I am not arguing against the points you made, at all. I'm saying (over and over) that you have failed to address the extremely simple point that I made. I've replied to your other comment, so let's leave it there. All the best.