[__sisyphus__]

really though, what tangible value do polls provide anyway? i get that the polling over the last few years hasn't been great, but i don't really understand why everyone's so upset about it. did anyone actually make or change decisions based on these polls? they're just predictions anyway.

for instance, in your example, a hurricane's path directly affects citizens of cities that lie on that path—do they need to prepare to leave their homes, etc.? but is anyone actually basing their decision to vote or who to vote for on the polls in such a way that it significantly affects the outcome?

[gpm]

> what tangible value do polls provide anyway

I live in Canada but am working for an American country. I am considering if/when I want to move to the US, they informed me about the likely outcome of this election, which influenced my plans a non trivial amount (not a huge amount either, covid dominates in the planning process, but a non-zero amount).

For many people it can influence how they vote. If you're in a state with a potential to change the outcome of the election you are more likely to vote "strategically", i.e. vote for one of the two most popular candidates instead of vote for a third party that you prefer. On the flip side if you're voting in a non-competitive race you are much more likely to vote for a candidate who is unlikely to win in order to better indicate your preferences (i.e. you should be more likely to vote libertarian/green/...).

For many people who wins an election affects there careers going forward, in the US in particular a large number of people are fired/hired based on the election. Even if you're not in that position your industry might get more or less government funding, if you're a government contractor the projects you are working on might or might not be in danger of getting cancelled, and so on and so forth. Having better information earlier makes it easier to plan your life.

The US election is one of the most significant worldwide events that happens every 4 years, the idea that being able to better predict it is not valuable is... insane.

[__sisyphus__]

you definitely make some good points. i realized a few things i didn't think about after posting as well.

i guess i was thinking more along the lines of, most of the time i personally don't think you should be choosing a presidential candidate based on predictions of who may or may not win. even some of your examples are more centered on the ultimate outcome of the election and how to plan for it; i really think people whose lives could be affected that drastically should be planning ahead for that situation anyway.

nonetheless, i agree they do have some value, and perhaps i should have clarified my line of thinking more clearly.