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by _4gzn 2058 days ago
Everyone and their dog have a pet theory on the fall of the Western Roman Empire. Let me copy a previous comment of mine.[0]

My dream is a book/blog explaining historic processes with Ishikawa cause-and-effect fishbone diagrams.[1] For history, the main branches of the fishbone could be: Military, Economy, Society, Politics, and Nature. So a tentative diagram explaining the fall of the Western Roman Empire would have:

* Military: weakened army (increasing dependence on mercenaries), fights with the Germanic tribes (in turn, caused by the expansion of the Huns).

* Economy: inflation (debasement of currency), decline in the influx of slaves (end of expansion), lost taxation from some provinces (Germanic invasions), decline in maritime trade (Vandalic pirates), decline of agriculture (excessive taxes), drain of money (trade deficit with the Eastern Empire).

* Society: decline of civic virtue (expansion of Christianity), loss of ties with Rome in the provinces.

* Politics: political instability, overly powerful Praetorian Guard.

* Nature: population decline (Antonine Plague, Plague of Cyprian), soil erosion (deforestation, excessive grazing, soil salinization).

Improving the diagram and making similar diagrams explaining other events and processes is left as an exercise to the reader.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23190738

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ishikawa_diagram

2 comments

I don't know if this scratches the itch, but there is an attempt to scientifically explain [1] (and maybe predict?) history from fundamental, quantifiable factors like population, economics, etc. This is the field of study known as Cliodynamics. Why these folks even have their own journal [2]!

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cliodynamics

[2] https://escholarship.org/uc/irows_cliodynamics

With an on-topic book review[1] "Complexities of Collapse - A Review of Understanding Collapse: Ancient History and Modern Myths, by Guy D. Middleton (2017)".

[1] https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5bg8f4r1

> explaining other events and processes is left as an exercise to the reader

Does anyone know of any attempts at a "systems engineering" approach to teaching history?

So instead of a learning objective like "able to discuss the economic and political forces at work in the late Roman Empire", perhaps more like "has a feel for caloric restriction, starvation and famine in human history"? More human history as root causes analysis, than history as Trial Pursuit. And thus freed from the interminable obfuscating worry over just which particular measured mix of pervasive patterns of cause occurred in some trivially particular wherewhen. Fine for historians, but a distraction from introducing humanity as a system. More patterns of migration, than say Syrian migration in end Bronze Age collapse, or Mongols, or early 20th C, or early 21st, or etc. A more veterinary school approach to teaching history, focused on crosscutting patterns, because you've too many diverse critters to do old-style medical school's rote memorization of one critters's trivia. Any thoughts?