I don't know if this scratches the itch, but there is an attempt to scientifically explain [1] (and maybe predict?) history from fundamental, quantifiable factors like population, economics, etc. This is the field of study known as Cliodynamics. Why these folks even have their own journal [2]!
With an on-topic book review[1] "Complexities of Collapse - A Review of Understanding Collapse: Ancient History and Modern Myths, by Guy D. Middleton (2017)".
[1] https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5bg8f4r1