[shajznnckfke]

If you have a die that rolls a one 1/6 of the time, do you consider the die wrong?

[ceilingcorner]

No, but I don't consider it useful toward predicting the outcome, which is of course what this is all about.

[thomasmeeks]

Say more about "but I don't consider it useful toward predicting the outcome"

How else would one predict the outcome of a die roll, specifically?

[shajznnckfke]

If there was sufficient data to assign a 0% or 100% probability to an event, that’s what a forecaster should do. If there isn’t sufficient data, then anyone who claims there is a sure thing is a charlatan.