Agreed. The cost for underwater tunnels will be much higher - especially initially. Let's say they are 100X higher cost at $100mil/mile - that is still 1/30th the cost of a current tunnel in San Francisco at $3bil/mile. But the Boring Company is already designing for air tight tunnels: 'vacuum-sealed'.
"TBC’s current tunnels are designed and built in preparation for their eventual transition to Hyperloop."
"Hyperloop is an ultra-high-speed underground public transportation system in which passengers are transported at 600+ mph within a vacuum-sealed tunnel. Whereas Loop is used for shorter intra-city routes, Hyperloop will be used for longer inter-city routes."
I think you probably need to read Atrios (at least) on Boring Company (along with most of Elon's other stuff)
eschatonblog.com ... he probably has tags.
Suffice it to say that to say that Boring Company is getting closer to any of their stated goals is like saying that a monkey climbing a tree is closer to interstellar travel.
Did a site search "boring site:eschatonblog.com" and read through top 30 or so hits. Didn't see any arguments that Boring Company is fundamentally wrong and can't succeed through the limitations of physics.
Valid criticisms:
* Boring Co is moving pretty slowly.
* There are specific problems that have not been solved yet related to station design, the mini bus people mover vehicle (12 people) has not been made yet, self-driving cars aren't real yet, the actual Boring machines are only on version 3, the automated tunnel wall mfg and assembly machinery has not yet been built.
I agree that there are many assumptions (which could be incorrect) that need to be solved for the city to city test to succeed:
* Cheaper Station design for passenger and cargo load / offload.
* 12 person walk on / off bus mover vehicle design, manufacture.
* Self driving.
* Faster elevators and probably bulk elevators to move vehicles between levels of tunnels.
* Faster Boring machines
* Tunnel wall assembly machines from dug out dirt.
* Automated tunnel wall assembly.
The first solutions to these problems will probably be pretty crappy. But they will improve rapidly.
Godot (1X speed) was a straight up purchase of existing tech. Linestorm (2X speed) was partially upgraded from existing machinery from other companies by Boring Co. Prufrock (2->10X speed?) is the latest and version 3.
My guess is they need to get up to version 10 or more for a chance to beat Gary the snail. They still have a long way to go before they have their own machines 100% built by Boring Company that are much cheaper and faster.
Also, it doesn't look like there is much progress yet on the brick making machines. Or the automated tunnel assembly from bricks made from local dirt. The ideal system has definitely not been assembled yet: Boring machine -> dirt into wall sections -> wall sections assembled into tunnel wall.
So yes, there is a long way to go yet. But these are solvable problems that the team is working on.
After that, it may be time to work out the details of building an ultra dense city on super cheap land and try to reduce the costs of construction and maintenance of city infrastructure: water treatment etc.
The selling point of a $200k condo with access to pools, gyms, etc with all the basic stores like dry cleaners, grocery store, restaurants a short walk away in your town/city AND a 10-25min tunnel ride to the big city may be hugely attractive for many people. Plus if you want to go ATVing or cherry picking or horseback riding or camping, you can take a 10min trip from your town right into the countryside because you will be there already, in the countryside.
If an average restaurant worker or entry level school teacher works in San Francisco right now, they may earn say $60k-$90k and pay 33% taxes - max $30k. Factor in rent at $30k (1bedroom is $2500/mn), and basic living expenses of $15k and that person is saving max $15k/year. The average condo in San Francisco is $1.2mil. So it would take around 8 years to save for 10% down payment or 16 years to save for a 20% down payment.
Contrast that with a condo for $200k a 20min commute away. You would have a 20% down payment in 3 years.
It takes longer than 20mins to drive across the city without traffic right now. During busy times it can 60 minutes to drive from the Golden Gate bridge to SOMA. You can literally walk faster than cars in San Francisco.
The selling point: If you want to live in a big city for its job and cultural opportunities but can't afford it, then this option is 10X cheaper.
That makes this option very attractive. Especially if you choose a town franchise that fits who you are. You could join the Tech Town if you are into technology. Or Scientist town if you want to do University research. Or the Middle Ages town if you want to ride a horse and a visit a Blacksmith.
And if you change your mind on who you are in a few year, and one of the other 20 towns near a big city look attractive, you could move there. Say you want to party in Mini-Vegas town for your early 20s but then move to University town in your early 30s to get educated. That could be possible.
"TBC’s current tunnels are designed and built in preparation for their eventual transition to Hyperloop."
"Hyperloop is an ultra-high-speed underground public transportation system in which passengers are transported at 600+ mph within a vacuum-sealed tunnel. Whereas Loop is used for shorter intra-city routes, Hyperloop will be used for longer inter-city routes."
https://www.boringcompany.com/faq