Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by dayaz36 2098 days ago
Tesla just made ICE cars obsolete. How is this not on the front page of HN? It's even trending on twitter. It's very strange this isn't on the front of HN.
5 comments

> Tesla just made ICE car obsolete.

No, it didn't. It announced it is confident that in the near future it will be able to deliver the same thing it's said it would deliver in the nearish future a decade ago, which is an entry level electric car at a little under double the MSRP of the cheapest major manufacturer ICE cars in the US, and which will still be in many respects (especially range) far more limited than even the cheapest ICE cars.

They didn't make ICE cars obsolete. They didn't even announce something that, if/when delivered as predicted, will make ICE cars obsolete.

> It announced it is confident that in the near future it will be able to deliver the same thing it's said it would deliver in the nearish future a decade ago

They also said that this one will be fully self-driving.

I'm not gonna hold my breath...

They're absolutely pushing the state of the art forward, kudos for that, but they're constantly overpromising and underdelivering.

Copy pasting previous comment since the number of people misrepresenting the ground breaking tech that was announced is to high to spend energy on:

1)56% reduction in cost (which blows way past the $100/kwh holy grail for EV to sub $40). This by itself is insane and most people in the industry thought it wont happen for at least another decade. This puts the last nail in the coffin for the future of ICE cars.

2) 54% increase in range. The new Model S will have minimum 520mi of range and much more actually when they start production. Range anxiety gone out the window.

3) New manufacturing tech along with vertical integration will allow Tesla to scale 55x their current rate of production and become the world's largest auto manufacturer by many multiples. Tesla will not only produce their own battery cells but they're even getting into mining!!

Along with many other things announced in a 3+ hour technical video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6T9xIeZTds

$2000 for a small EV battery is about price of an iPhone. That is cheap.
> $2000 for a small EV battery is about price of an iPhone.

It's about double the launch price of the 11 Pro Max, so not really.

With gas prices so low and likely to remain as such until the economy recovers, ICE cars are a better short term investment(on a personal level. I'm not counting externalities or AGW here).

There's something about Musk that rubs me the wrong way, but I do hope he succeeds in making electric vehicles the norm. That said, ICE cars won't die until we force them to die with carbon taxes and other disincentives.

lol no they didnt. In reality what they announced was a new battery cell with 16% higher energy density, and a new version of their supercar/Model S that costs way more than $100k. Thats impressive and great for their cars but in not way makes ICE cars obsolete.

Most other things was Elon making claims. People have learnt over the years that Elon's claims can not be trusted. Sometimes he delivers, but often he doesnt or at least way way behind schedule.

Currently EVs are < 1% of cars. What Tesla showed today was a path to increase that significantly with the cost per kWh reduced by 56% and 7x improvement in factory production footprint.
> with the cost per kWh reduced by 56%

as i said, Elon making claims. In 2016 he claimed that by 2018 their battery packs would cost less than $100/kwh. Its 2020 now and they still cost around $150. Why do you believe him this time?

I'll be interested once Tesla actually delivers on those claims.

> Its 2020 now and they still cost around $150

I'd be interested in seeing a source for this. afaik there aren't any public sources on what price Tesla pays for $/kWh at pack level.

you are right. The $150/kwh is current industry estimates of Tesla's cost. The exact number isnt really important, the point is that years ago they where supposed to be at $100 and now they once again claim they'll be at $100 in a couple years. "We promise guys, this time we know what we are talking about"
>What Tesla showed today was a path to increase that significantly with the cost per kWh reduced by 56% and 7x improvement in factory production footprint.

I'm going to withhold judgment until they are actually doing any of these things.

16% is just including the cell production process. Not the anode or cathode chemistry changes.
It's only a 16% range improvement in 3 years.

Nice claims currently, but we'll see which ones are correct/feasible.

That's just from the improvement of the cells themselves, they also talked about an additional 10% decrease in mass and a 14% increase in range due to the integration of the battery pack into the body of the car, which the new, larger cells will allow them to do. An overall improvement of 30% range with these changes ain't too shabby, and that's from incremental improvements to what they are already doing. Honestly everything they covered today seemed so straight forward and feasible that it just seemed kind of boring, but the changes combined are quite impressive. The important part of the presentation really, is the total overall cost reduction of the battery pack of 56%, that's what leads them to believe they can produce a $25,000 car.
Range increase was actually 54%! :)
Who's paying you to downplay what was actually announced?

1)56% reduction in cost (which blows way past the $100/kwh holy grail for EV to sub $40). This by itself is insane and most people in the industry thought it wont happen for at least another decade. This puts the last nail in the coffin for the future of ICE cars.

2) 54% increase in range. The new Model S will have minimum 520mi of range and much more actually when they start production. Range anxiety gone out the window.

3) New manufacturing tech along with vertical integration will allow Tesla to scale 55x their current rate of production and become the world's largest auto manufacturer by many multiples. Tesla will not only produce their own battery cells but they're even getting into mining!!

Along with many other things announced in 3+ hour technical video. But yea 16% density improvement is the only takeaway from this...

Edit: I like how you're editing your original comment after I've already replied without any mention of it. Please practice honest forum etiquette.

> Who's paying you to downplay what was actually announced?

Insinuations of shillage are not allowed here. Please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules. That means also: please avoid the flamewar style in general.

To be honest, I didn't see your answer lol.

And accusing me of being paid is weird. It's probably my first post about Tesla and I post here regularly ;) - i also visited your history :)

Tesla announced a $35k car and then pulled it, requiring you to jump through hoops to get it. It's almost as if they don't want you to buy that car.

Why do you think it's going to be different with this car? They will announce $25k and then it will be $35k with a $25k dark pattern option.

When demand exceeds supply, it makes sense to prioritize higher margin cars first. They did release $35k model 3 but people were willing to pay more for a few extras.
Let us know when it ships, and when you can get parts for service on the regular.