Inclusion in the S&P doesn’t always indicate a big upside. I recently heard a podcast that suggested the opposite. If TSLA’s rise was based on such speculation, it deserves to fall.
Tesla sells globally, literally operates the largest car charging network in the world, they have stores and service centers all over the globe. They the major players in EV in all major EV markets, US, Europe, China.
There is absolutely no reason to exclude them based on your criteria.
And also, there is no evidence that these stock prices changes are related to S&P 500 at all. It doesn't really matter for Tesla if they are in the S&P 500.
Edit:
What the hell is it with downvoting? Tesla is a global 24.58 billion USD revenue company. There is LITERALLY no indication in the S&P guidelines that Tesla doesn't fulfill some requirement. That's a simple fact no matter if you like Tesla or not.
Again, I couldn't care less if Tesla is in the S&P500 or not, but there is no series argument against it.
In a more mature EV market like Norway where there's actual competition and consumer choice, Tesla isn't doing so hot. From the article:
Audi e-tron - 755
Mercedes-Benz EQC - 595
Polestar 2 - 504 (according to separate source)
Volkswagen e-Golf - N/A (511 total with ICE; mostly BEV)
Hyundai Kona Electric - N/A (413 total with ICE; mostly BEV)
MG ZS EV - 281
Nissan LEAF - 270
Tesla Model 3 - 264 (total Tesla brand: 348)
Renault ZOE - 221
BMW i3 - 152
That's about a 7% market share (edit: New car sales in Norway, August, 2020) for Model 3, 9% for all Tesla models combined.
If the VW group is already outselling Tesla in Norway 5 to 1 just in the BEV category, how can Tesla's market cap be 4 times higher than VW's? It fundamentally doesn't make sense.
I believe Tesla is facing real competition in Europe now, and it's a lot of fun to watch versus the (not undeserved) US Tesla monoculture.
But you can't use Model 3 sales in Q2 or Q3 (as of yet) to show how well or poorly Tesla is doing. They batch produce their EU cars, and the shutdown meant they essentially skipped Model 3 deliveries in Q2, and Q3 is only beginning to spool up.
It's possible the Model 3 will lose its EU crown to the ID.3, but sales will once more be strong.
New BEV car sales January to August 2020 in Germany:
Tesla: 10.6%
VW Group: 35.3%
Tesla had a fantastic first mover advantage, they're not making bad cars, but they're not special anymore. And in the real world, with competition, they're simply not stacking up very well. The trend is pretty clear to me. The stock market obviously disagrees, though.
Tesla is 28% full EV market and if you include Plug-in hybrids (you shouldn't) its 20% of the global market in the first half of 2020 and they have been improving their global market share consistently over the last couple years. But don't let real evidence stop you form selecting specific data samples that prove your point you want to make.
No company in its right mind could hold 30% of the total car market, but what is actually surprising is that unlike many analysis's predicted, their global market share has been going up. Maybe the next round of Tesla killer is finally gone do something.
You are comparing Tesla to the largest auto maker in its home market during a global pandemic where Tesla has to export their car from California (yes they are insane enough to build cars in California) and they have to pay tariffs.
Tesla is building a gigantic factory in the middle of Europe until then Tesla will not have the market leading position in Europe while all European companies dumb their vehicles in Europe first. I still expect Tesla to big a significant junk of the European market going forward.
If anything, it's slightly generous to Tesla, as Norway's ASP for cars is very high. Across Europe, they took about 8% of the market in the first half, down from 18% last year.
Based on some metrics. In terms of how much travel it allows, how fast it charges and so on and so on. Call it the best, the most impressive or whatever you like. Clearly they are a major global player and that was may point.