[henrikschroder]

> They the major players in EV in all major EV markets, US, Europe, China.

https://insideevs.com/news/442139/norway-etron-eqc-sales-aug...

In a more mature EV market like Norway where there's actual competition and consumer choice, Tesla isn't doing so hot. From the article:

    Audi e-tron - 755
    Mercedes-Benz EQC - 595
    Polestar 2 - 504 (according to separate source)
    Volkswagen e-Golf - N/A (511 total with ICE; mostly BEV)
    Hyundai Kona Electric - N/A (413 total with ICE; mostly BEV)
    MG ZS EV - 281
    Nissan LEAF - 270
    Tesla Model 3 - 264 (total Tesla brand: 348)
    Renault ZOE - 221
    BMW i3 - 152

That's about a 7% market share (edit: New car sales in Norway, August, 2020) for Model 3, 9% for all Tesla models combined.

If the VW group is already outselling Tesla in Norway 5 to 1 just in the BEV category, how can Tesla's market cap be 4 times higher than VW's? It fundamentally doesn't make sense.

[reitzensteinm]

I believe Tesla is facing real competition in Europe now, and it's a lot of fun to watch versus the (not undeserved) US Tesla monoculture.

But you can't use Model 3 sales in Q2 or Q3 (as of yet) to show how well or poorly Tesla is doing. They batch produce their EU cars, and the shutdown meant they essentially skipped Model 3 deliveries in Q2, and Q3 is only beginning to spool up.

It's possible the Model 3 will lose its EU crown to the ID.3, but sales will once more be strong.

[nickik]

Using one month of data from one small country is honestly the most embarrassing argument I have ever seen on Hacker News.

[henrikschroder]

New BEV car sales January to August 2020 in Germany:

Tesla: 10.6%

VW Group: 35.3%

Tesla had a fantastic first mover advantage, they're not making bad cars, but they're not special anymore. And in the real world, with competition, they're simply not stacking up very well. The trend is pretty clear to me. The stock market obviously disagrees, though.

[nickik]

Tesla is 28% full EV market and if you include Plug-in hybrids (you shouldn't) its 20% of the global market in the first half of 2020 and they have been improving their global market share consistently over the last couple years. But don't let real evidence stop you form selecting specific data samples that prove your point you want to make.

No company in its right mind could hold 30% of the total car market, but what is actually surprising is that unlike many analysis's predicted, their global market share has been going up. Maybe the next round of Tesla killer is finally gone do something.

You are comparing Tesla to the largest auto maker in its home market during a global pandemic where Tesla has to export their car from California (yes they are insane enough to build cars in California) and they have to pay tariffs.

Tesla is building a gigantic factory in the middle of Europe until then Tesla will not have the market leading position in Europe while all European companies dumb their vehicles in Europe first. I still expect Tesla to big a significant junk of the European market going forward.

[fomine3]

OP points real evidence for BEV.

[nickik]

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/15/tesla-had-28-of-worlds-...

[rsynnott]

If anything, it's slightly generous to Tesla, as Norway's ASP for cars is very high. Across Europe, they took about 8% of the market in the first half, down from 18% last year.