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by TMWNN 2122 days ago
This analysis only covers USPS package delivery, which is different from flats. Ballots are flats. Magazines are flats. Letters are flats. Anything non-bendable isn't.

This is what has been happening to USPS, folks:

1. Because of COVID19, flats volume has collapsed, while package volume has skyrocketed. Flats sorting machines can do absolutely nothing for packages for reasons that are left up to the reader, so USPS has been shutting them down and moving them out of processing facilities in favor of package sorting.

2. Because USPS is losing lots of money overall (higher package volume doesn't make up for the collapse in flats volume)[1], it has been cutting back on overtime, just like any other employer would.

3. People hear about 1 and 2, hear about/experience packages being delivered more slowly, and think that this surely means that "the Trump administration is trying to sabotage the post office to suppress voting!!!!". They do this without thinking about it at all:

3a. As stated, flats volume has collapsed, so there is still a lot of excess capacity.

3b. Even if every single voter were to vote by mail only, this would mean at most two additional flat pieces per voter (one ballot to the voter, and one ballot sent back). Think about how much mail (not packages, mail) you already receive daily on average. Do you really think two additional pieces would collapse the system? Of course not, any more than the USPS collapses every January when the IRS and every single employer, bank, and other financial institution sends out tax-related documents. (The USPS hires seasonal help in December for packages, not for Christmas cards.)

3c. If this really were a sinister Trump administration voter-suppression scheme, it's a pretty weak one that can be defeated by dropping ballots off in person, and/or voting in person.

4. An actual serious issue is states and counties that aren't like Oregon (which has been 100% vote by mail for two decades) trying to convert to vote by mail without preparation. Think of how much mail your home receives for the previous tenant (and the one before that, and the one before that). Think of this all having to be done by early October, to give voters about a month to receive and return ballots. This is what the administration has been pointing out, something rarely heard amidst the nonsense about mail-vote suppression.

[1] Congress mandating the USPS to prepay pensions is a good thing. The postal service is an industry that is, by definition, in secular decline (barring unusual events like COVID19) because of the Internet. Congress recognized this in 2006 and thus required USPS to prepare over 10 years to get its pensions ready, because there's no reason to believe that future revenue (and future employee-count growth) is going to sustain pensions for retirees otherwise.

7 comments

The DMV loses money.

The FDA loses money.

The FCC loses money.

These are public institutions, not for profit enterprises. They're funded partially by fees and usually largely by congressional appropriations.

You beg the question by beginning by comparing the USPS to other carriers. It's one of the few public institutions required by the constitution! Even the Defense Department doesn't get that privilege, and it loses hundreds of billions a year and doesn't have the same requirement to fund pensions for employees who haven't been born yet.

Lastly, delaying flats and prioritizing packages during a situation when many, perhaps most people will vote by mail due to a public health crisis is if not malicious, dangerously ignorant of the societal implications.

Yes, the USPS can handle the volume. But for the sake of our elections, and based on issues we may have with counting ballots, postmark and receipt date laws that vary by state, can we agree as a bipartisan issue that mail delivery now, of all times, shouldn't be compromised?

But should the USPS be a public institution? Many countries have opted to privatize their postal services, admittedly with varying results, but with quite a few successes as well: you may have heard the package division of what was once Deutsche Bundespost, now known worldwide as DHL.

I do agree that right now is not a great time for radical changes though!

Deutsche Post bought DHL from 1998 through 2002.
The problem with comparing to a lot of other countries, is that the US really has remote locations.

In those situations, their "competitors" largely just drop off their packages to USPS and let them handle the costly trip.

https://www.ups.com/media/en/terms_service_gnd_pr.pdf https://www.uspis.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/USPIS-FAQs....

TLDR is, USPS needs a warrant to open first class mail. Private carriers may be able to open with impunity. Who do you want handling your mail-in ballot?

Tampering with ballots will still be illegal, even if the company is private.

That's also a bit of weird argument, since we're right now seeing how the USPS can easily be bent by political pressure precisely because it is a govt institution and presidents already get to appoint their cronies to run it.

I don't think the Constitution requires the federal government to establish a postal service. It only grants them the power to do it.
Minor correction that does not detract from your point:

DMV actually nets out a surplus in most states given the fees it collects.

When states cut its operating budget, it's because they're looking across the budget for ways to cut costs. This is only irrational from a budgetary, as opposed to service delivery, POV if the cuts somehow undermine revenue collection, like reducing the number of IRS auditors.

>You beg the question by beginning by comparing the USPS to other carriers.

I at no point made a comparison between the USPS and any other carrier.

>It's one of the few public institutions required by the constitution!

No. Article I merely authorizes the federal government to establish post offices.

>Even the Defense Department doesn't get that privilege

On the contrary, the same Article I repeatedly discusses the federal government's warmaking powers on land and sea.

>and it loses hundreds of billions a year and doesn't have the same requirement to fund pensions for employees who haven't been born yet.

How do you define "losing money" for the Department of Defense? Obviously it is not a money-making enterprise. That is, there is no way to measure its success or failure on a financial basis. Such a thing is possible with the USPS.

I didn't say that the USPS has to make money. But it is possible to measure its financial performance in a way that isn't possible with most other government agencies, including DoD.

>Lastly, delaying flats and prioritizing packages during a situation when many, perhaps most people will vote by mail due to a public health crisis is if not malicious, dangerously ignorant of the societal implications.

Nice speech; too bad I said nothing of the sort. As I said, there is a lot of slack in non-package processing capability because of the massive COVID19-related decline in non-package volume. The USPS trying to rearrange logistics and personnel accordingly, while avoiding overtime because of the money-losing issue, is what caused the nonsense the past few weeks (which, thankfully, seems to be dying down as people look into the issue and realize said nonsense).

DeJoy did recently concede that the USPS will give ballots absolute priority over other mail, so in theory, it will be everything else that gets delayed.

Previously DeJoy had threatened that states which don't pay for first class postage would be delivered slower.

I have been wondering about this argument about the decline. Check out these numbers: https://facts.usps.com/table-facts/

From 2010 to 2019:

-Overall annual operating revenue has increased from $67.1B to $71.1B

-First-class letters has dropped from 77.6B to 54.9B

-Shipping/package volume has grown from 3.3B to 6.2B

-Marketing mail has dropped from 81.8B to 75.7B

I would not call a 29% drop on first-class mail over a 10-year period with a 100% growth in packages a "collapse."

I wonder how this stacks up in comparison to FedEx and UPS who are surely seeing a drop in letters/flats through their system. It would be interesting to track down the same numbers and compare.

People assume UPS can deliver letter-sized envelopes just as well as the USPS but they simply can't. I'm working on https://nanagram.co and up until recently we used UPS. The average delivery was 7-9 days at best with poor tracking. I switched everything over to the USPS in July and even with all the pandemic the post office is more reliable than UPS and also a little cheaper. We've been seeing deliveries in 2-4 days and before the pandemic 1-3 days.

While what little you highlight are directionally correct, both the backstory and current debate are far more interesting and nuanced. This recent episode of Vox's The Weeds is a really good summary.

WTF is happening with USPS [2020-08-18]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtf-is-happening-with-...

https://overcast.fm/+FOORtkRGM

(Long concerned with USPS wrt postal ballots, I learned quite a bit.)

Got solid text-based summaries to share?
That'd be great. Sorry! Some of the podcast clients do correctly render the show notes.
Letters and ballots are not flats. Flats are magazines, catalogues and larger mail pieces.

USPS has three categories of mail: letters, flats (flat items too large to be considered letters), and packages.

https://pe.usps.com/text/dmm300/101.htm

If you can't even get beyond two sentences without a factual inaccuracy, it does cast some doubt on whether anything else you wrote was accurate.

I admit to being inexact, but my larger point remains: Shippo's analysis (and most of the anecdotal reports about "slow mail") is regarding "parcels". (If you're going to be sneeringly pedantic, the USPS term is "parcels" and not, as you claim, "packages"; the word appears in USPS descriptions of levels of service, like "flat rate package" and "first class package", but is not a category like "letters", "flats", and "parcels").

To put another way, "flats" are larger "letters" and can be processed in similar ways, because both are bendable, and thus machine-sortable in a way that "parcels" are not. This is also why letters, regardless of height/weight, that exceed a certain thickness automatically become parcels, because they are no longer bendable.

Not sure why your comment appears to be getting down-voted / flagged.

It's dead on the money, beyond the minor trivialisation of "2 papers". It's 2 papers... per person. Still well within their capacity though, considering the sheer amount of other mail moved normally.

While I have no knowledge to critic your analysis, I just one to answer to one point:

> 3. People hear about 1 and 2, hear about/experience packages being delivered more slowly, and think that this surely means that "the Trump administration is trying to sabotage the post office to suppress voting!!!!".

I think this is a bit unfair. D. J. Trump has repeatability express his hatred for mail-in voting, and him, and his administration, has expressed several time that they could/would gut the USPS to prevent mail-in voting.

So while your analysis might be true, and the current state of the USPS has nothing to do with the current administration, it is unfair to present the current fear of voter suppressions as unreasonable.

That would be nice, if the reason was slow packages so it would correlate with The problem at hand.

People are mentioning serious delays in mails, barely about packages.