[maeln]

While I have no knowledge to critic your analysis, I just one to answer to one point:

> 3. People hear about 1 and 2, hear about/experience packages being delivered more slowly, and think that this surely means that "the Trump administration is trying to sabotage the post office to suppress voting!!!!".

I think this is a bit unfair. D. J. Trump has repeatability express his hatred for mail-in voting, and him, and his administration, has expressed several time that they could/would gut the USPS to prevent mail-in voting.

So while your analysis might be true, and the current state of the USPS has nothing to do with the current administration, it is unfair to present the current fear of voter suppressions as unreasonable.