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by thelean12
2137 days ago
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Why are you ignoring spread? College students can easily spread it to vulnerable populations. 1. Some live at home. 2. Some will go shopping. Some in places without mask mandates. 3. Older professors and staff (custodial, food services, advisors) will be pressured to work (you probably can't just say "I'm not teaching" without quitting). 4. Some may need to use public transit to get to the school. Again also in some places without mask mandates. 5. And of course, some students are vulnerable. Many schools are not allowing remote work when they open. Add in dorms being super spreader environments and you've got disasters waiting to happen. |
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The USA is over 5M confirmed cases now. The CDC estimates that the true infection count is 6x-24x that. So on the order of 30M - 120M Americans have already had it now.
The distribution is uneven. Places that hadn't gotten hit are getting hit now. But on average we are likely close to herd immunity.
This is no longer an exponential thing here. We can't have an OOM more cases. It's mathematically impossible. The worst is over (again, on average). I don't think we explicitly tried to follow a herd immunity strategy but that is what ended up happening.
1. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar...