[WordSkill]

Idiotic move, driven by Turkish nationalism, that hands a massive PR win to the Cypriots and is likely to result in a significant backlash against Turkish tourism in general.

Pre-Covid, Turkey's tourist industry had been rapidly expanding. By 2019, Turkey was the world's sixth most popular destination, with over 51 million tourists. That's a lot of jobs, a lot of cash for a developing nation with low levels of education and skills.

The fact that their newly opened Istanbul Airport will, once completed, have an annual capacity of 200 million passengers indicates Turkey's ambition was to keep their tourist industry growing as fast as possible.

The national flag carrier, Turkish Airlines, with 315 scheduled destinations, was the largest mainline carrier in the world by number of passenger destinations. That's a lot of planes that are currently mostly grounded.

Now, just as the entire global tourist industry lies in tatters, the Turks are going to dredge up bad memories and alienate the valuable European market by moving aggressively against Cyprus, an EU member. Are German and Swedish tourists really going to ignore that and book their winter escapes in Turkey?

All that Turkey gains is a good but relatively small site for a tourist city, one that has to be demolished and built again from scratch. That massive investment, made in direct defiance of United Nations rules, could all be lost if they do end up having to hand that disputed territory back to the original occupants.

It is all so needlessly stupid, running directly counter to the long-term interests of Turkey as a whole. This is a good example of why "strong leaders" are not such a hot idea. The generals running Thailand, another country massively dependent upon tourism, are an example of the same thing. Even before Covid-19 came along, they were needlessly whipping up anti-Western sentiment, overcomplicating their visa rules, and pretending that tourism was no longer a significant part of "Thailand 4.0". Now that roughly a quarter of their economy has disappeared, they have to somehow do a 360 without admitting they made a mistake and losing face.

[9nGQluzmnq3M]

I think you're seriously exaggerating the extent to which the average cheap Turkish resort package tourist cares. The area has already been occupied by Turkey for decades, whether they're building there or letting it rot is not particularly consequential (unless you have pre-invasion property claims, of course).

[WordSkill]

It was not left unoccupied for almost half a century by mistake. There was an actual UN resolution that ruled it could only be resettled by the original inhabitants. Tearing down those homes and building over them will be deeply consequential. It will make Turkey an international pariah and raise questions about other issues, such as their treatment of their Kurd minority.

For your cheap package tourist, money and convenience matter even if ethics do not. The international embargo means no direct flights from anywhere other than Turkey, so, your package tourist would be looking at significant additional travel time and expense.

Then you have infrastructure. The south of the island received significant grants and subsidies from the EU, had plenty of foreign investment, a thriving tourist industry, and a tourist-oriented population that can mostly speak English. The north was isolated, unable to export, and almost entirely dependent on meagre support from Turkey, meaning that the north fell far behind.

So, your package tourist will have fewer comforts, fewer food choices, and would be served by inexperienced staff with little English. The TripAdvisor reviews will be painful.

For the next decade or so, the supply of tourist accommodation all over the world is going to wildly exceed demand. The established destinations, with experienced operators, established reputations, and direct flights are going to utterly dominate a cut-throat market. The main Turkish tourist industry will, of course, survive but this self-inflicted damage to its reputation will make it harder than it could have been.

[mvc]

> It will make Turkey an international pariah and raise questions about other issues, such as their treatment of their Kurd minority.

Like how Israel became an international pariah for resettlements in the West Bank?

[postingawayonhn]

> Tearing down those homes and building over them will be deeply consequential. It will make Turkey an international pariah and raise questions about other issues, such as their treatment of their Kurd minority.

The world has far bigger issues to deal with and Erdogan know it. I don't expect to see any significant international pushback.

[aunty_helen]

If my government marks Turkey as a no-go zone due to escalation of tensions, I can't have travel insurance whilst in the country. Therefore, it's either a big risk to be their or it gets skipped over.

Something the cheap Turkish resort package tourist cares about when their luggage doesn't show up at IST.

Edit: Something worth noting, the Eastern side of Turkey within a few hundred kms of the Syrian border is already a no-go zone.

[9nGQluzmnq3M]

That's a very big if, since it is exceedingly unlikely that Greece, much less Cyprus, would attempt an invasion of mainland Turkey. (Among other things, Turkey is 8x larger.)

I happen to know an EU diplomat, who has (undiplomatically) shared that letting Cyprus into the EU without using this as a cudgel to sort out the issue is widely viewed as a huge mistake. They're heartily sick of the problem, so the likeliest outcome here is that the EU issues a communique expressing deep concern over Turkey's actions and reiterating its commitment to a peaceful solution, which will have the same effect as all its other communiques about the same issue over the years. (Which is to say, nil.)

[WordSkill]

Neither aunty_helen nor anyone else is suggesting an invasion of Turkey. They don't need to. Turkey's move towards isolationism is going to do more damage than any invasion could.

It does not matter if some unnamed EU diplomat thinks that letting Cyprus into the EU was a mistake. They have been a full member for 16 years now. That diplomat works for them. They are a participant in the world's biggest economy and federation of nations.

Turkey, meanwhile, under Erdogan, has been rapidly burning bridges and has become a real embarrassment to NATO. Everyone, on both sides, knows they are only kept in because the US needs somewhere to fly its planes into the Middle East.

20 years ago, just a few years before Erdogan became Prime Minister, Turkey was officially recognized as a candidate for full membership of the EU. It would have been the most populous nation in the EU, with its youthful citizens doubtless making a big impact on the evolving face of Europe. The future was bright.

Today, you would struggle to find an EU diplomat who believes that there is now any possibility of Turkey ever being accepted into the EU. Indeed, if Turkey does launch a military attack upon drilling operations within internationally recognized Cypriot waters, the most likely result will be a complete EU boycott on Turkish goods and a travel block. Again, they don't need to invade.

[petre]

Turkey would never have been admitted into the EU. Not with prevously Ottoman occupied nations being part of the EU having a say about it, Greece included. Edrogan's neo-ottomanism only makes things even worse.

The US was right to cut them off the F35 program after Edrogan's rocket deal with Russia. They're probably not far off to being kicked out of Nato altogether.

[StavrosK]

> They're heartily sick of the problem

Though apparently not sick enough to do something about it.

[082349872349872]

We hosted a greek/turk summit a few years back. The parties themselves are not sick enough to do anything about it. You can lead a horticulture, and all that.

[riffraff]

> Are German and Swedish tourists really going to ignore that and book their winter escapes in Turkey?

Yes, yes they are, the same way they've always done.

Political issues count almost zero for the average tourist, and governments are not going to block flights or anything, just like they didn't do it when Russia invaded ucraine.

[mrighele]

Turkey is still on EU's travel ban list despite been in a better shape wrt COVID-19 than other countries and some EU members. The move is seen to be at least in part political.

[gorkemyurt]

Have you been following the ridiculous Maritime EZ claims from the Greek nationalists? This is just a bargaining chip on the table.

[WordSkill]

No, I had not been following it, interesting, thank you for drawing my attention to it.

Based on the relevant Wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyprus%E2%80%93Turkey_maritime...) and a few other sources I briefly looked over, it appears that the nub of the argument is that, due to a different, earlier dispute with Greece, Turkey was one of only 15 countries (including Venezuela, Eritrea, South Sudan, and Kyrgyzstan) that refused to sign UNCLOS, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Under international law, Cyprus has a right to certain areas of sea around its internationally recognized territory. All 167 countries who signed UNCLOS agree with the principle of territorial waters.

Turkey's invasion and annexation of the north of the island was against international rules at the time and has never been recognized as legal by any other country. Even today, Turkey is the only country which recognizes Northern Cyprus.

Now that gas deposits have been discovered in Cypriot waters, the Turks have threatened military action against any equipment installed to extract that gas. No other country believes that this would be anything other than an illegal interference in another country's territory.

Again, I do not see how this strong man nationalism and isolationism is helping the Turkish people. If Turkey had not invaded Cyprus in 1974 it would probably have become a full member of the EU by the late 1980's, shortly after Greece. That would, I believe, have been of great benefit to the Turkish economy and the Turkish people, including better human rights and better relations with neighboring countries.

[tugberkk]

It is obvious that you like to read and know many things. Please research the reasons of the invasion. Innocent people and families (babies included) were killed by force, people were massacred. You can find pictures online, not that hard. You can still see the bullet holes in houses and bathtubs in Turkish houses.

I was personally sorry to see this phrase "If Turkey had not invaded Cyprus.." Being a full member is definitely not a choice when compared to dying citizens. These are all theories.

I also think that a country with Muslim majority and Ottoman background would never be accepted in European Union.

[gorkemyurt]

UNCLOS is problematic when it comes to islands, disputes are usually solved on 1-1 agreements between countries or not solved like South China Sea. Google "Kastellorizo", a small island between Rhodes and Cyprus. Greece claims EZ on almost all the waters between Cyprus and Rhodes because of these 3 small islands.

Cyprus should not have been admitted to EU before accepting the Annan plan, unfortunately they were and now the last generation of Cypriot Turks and Greeks are getting old a solution is still far away..

Countries have no problem recognizing "British Overseas Territories" scattered around the world, conveniently 2 large town sized military bases in Cyprus, but when it comes to a less powerful country like Turkey using military power, this is reason for international isolation. Erdogan is taking it way too far now but it's been like this before him too. It's ruthless out there.

[WordSkill]

> UNCLOS is problematic when it comes to islands

No, it really is not. It is exactly how 167 countries have agreed that maritime territory should be allocated. China's island-making shenanigans in the South China Sea are merely an attempt to hack that agreed standard.

What is problematic is Turkey's unique claim that islands should only be entitled to a 12 nautical mile territory rather than the usual 200 that Turkey and other countries are entitled to. Highly convenient for a country with lots of nearby islands inhabited by other people.

> Cyprus should not have been admitted to EU before accepting the Annan plan

The invasion was illegal by any internationally accepted standard. Therefore, the invaded people were under no obligation to accept any compromise. They democratically rejected it. It would have been against the core principles of the EU to withhold membership until they voted "the right way".

Delaying Turkey membership on the basis of invading other countries, or its human rights record, is different. That is about getting them to align with those principles before joining. Ultimately, the government of Turkey decided that their own principles were better aligned to the fast-growing nations of the Middle-East.

[gorkemyurt]

Colonization was an internationally accepted standard doesn't mean it was fair.

Turkey and Ottoman Empire before her, was forced to sign many deals that hindered her development and let European counties pillage all the resources, this is just another one.

[StavrosK]

On the other hand, Turkey claims that islands don't count, even when they've been inhabited by Greeks for millennia. Kastelorizo isn't some rock, it's an actual inhabited island and tourist destination. Might as well argue that Crete doesn't count towards an EEZ.

[mrighele]

> Might as well argue that Crete doesn't count towards an EEZ.

This is more or less what they did with their maritime deal with Libya's GNA [1]

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libya%E2%80%93Turkey_maritim...

[StavrosK]

And Rhodes is right out. Yay.

[gorkemyurt]

Well mainland Turkey is also inhabited by Greeks for a millennia they all converted to another religion and not called Greeks anymore. I don't think we can decide what's right and what's wrong by trying to analyze flimsy political identities.

[StavrosK]

We can't decide what's right and what's wrong with any criteria, except for all the criteria.