[9nGQluzmnq3M]

I think you're seriously exaggerating the extent to which the average cheap Turkish resort package tourist cares. The area has already been occupied by Turkey for decades, whether they're building there or letting it rot is not particularly consequential (unless you have pre-invasion property claims, of course).

[WordSkill]

It was not left unoccupied for almost half a century by mistake. There was an actual UN resolution that ruled it could only be resettled by the original inhabitants. Tearing down those homes and building over them will be deeply consequential. It will make Turkey an international pariah and raise questions about other issues, such as their treatment of their Kurd minority.

For your cheap package tourist, money and convenience matter even if ethics do not. The international embargo means no direct flights from anywhere other than Turkey, so, your package tourist would be looking at significant additional travel time and expense.

Then you have infrastructure. The south of the island received significant grants and subsidies from the EU, had plenty of foreign investment, a thriving tourist industry, and a tourist-oriented population that can mostly speak English. The north was isolated, unable to export, and almost entirely dependent on meagre support from Turkey, meaning that the north fell far behind.

So, your package tourist will have fewer comforts, fewer food choices, and would be served by inexperienced staff with little English. The TripAdvisor reviews will be painful.

For the next decade or so, the supply of tourist accommodation all over the world is going to wildly exceed demand. The established destinations, with experienced operators, established reputations, and direct flights are going to utterly dominate a cut-throat market. The main Turkish tourist industry will, of course, survive but this self-inflicted damage to its reputation will make it harder than it could have been.

[mvc]

> It will make Turkey an international pariah and raise questions about other issues, such as their treatment of their Kurd minority.

Like how Israel became an international pariah for resettlements in the West Bank?

[postingawayonhn]

> Tearing down those homes and building over them will be deeply consequential. It will make Turkey an international pariah and raise questions about other issues, such as their treatment of their Kurd minority.

The world has far bigger issues to deal with and Erdogan know it. I don't expect to see any significant international pushback.

[aunty_helen]

If my government marks Turkey as a no-go zone due to escalation of tensions, I can't have travel insurance whilst in the country. Therefore, it's either a big risk to be their or it gets skipped over.

Something the cheap Turkish resort package tourist cares about when their luggage doesn't show up at IST.

Edit: Something worth noting, the Eastern side of Turkey within a few hundred kms of the Syrian border is already a no-go zone.

[9nGQluzmnq3M]

That's a very big if, since it is exceedingly unlikely that Greece, much less Cyprus, would attempt an invasion of mainland Turkey. (Among other things, Turkey is 8x larger.)

I happen to know an EU diplomat, who has (undiplomatically) shared that letting Cyprus into the EU without using this as a cudgel to sort out the issue is widely viewed as a huge mistake. They're heartily sick of the problem, so the likeliest outcome here is that the EU issues a communique expressing deep concern over Turkey's actions and reiterating its commitment to a peaceful solution, which will have the same effect as all its other communiques about the same issue over the years. (Which is to say, nil.)

[WordSkill]

Neither aunty_helen nor anyone else is suggesting an invasion of Turkey. They don't need to. Turkey's move towards isolationism is going to do more damage than any invasion could.

It does not matter if some unnamed EU diplomat thinks that letting Cyprus into the EU was a mistake. They have been a full member for 16 years now. That diplomat works for them. They are a participant in the world's biggest economy and federation of nations.

Turkey, meanwhile, under Erdogan, has been rapidly burning bridges and has become a real embarrassment to NATO. Everyone, on both sides, knows they are only kept in because the US needs somewhere to fly its planes into the Middle East.

20 years ago, just a few years before Erdogan became Prime Minister, Turkey was officially recognized as a candidate for full membership of the EU. It would have been the most populous nation in the EU, with its youthful citizens doubtless making a big impact on the evolving face of Europe. The future was bright.

Today, you would struggle to find an EU diplomat who believes that there is now any possibility of Turkey ever being accepted into the EU. Indeed, if Turkey does launch a military attack upon drilling operations within internationally recognized Cypriot waters, the most likely result will be a complete EU boycott on Turkish goods and a travel block. Again, they don't need to invade.

[petre]

Turkey would never have been admitted into the EU. Not with prevously Ottoman occupied nations being part of the EU having a say about it, Greece included. Edrogan's neo-ottomanism only makes things even worse.

The US was right to cut them off the F35 program after Edrogan's rocket deal with Russia. They're probably not far off to being kicked out of Nato altogether.

[StavrosK]

> They're heartily sick of the problem

Though apparently not sick enough to do something about it.

[082349872349872]

We hosted a greek/turk summit a few years back. The parties themselves are not sick enough to do anything about it. You can lead a horticulture, and all that.