| Luck. In the short period of time we have had access to nuclear weapons, we have come very close to nuclear war between superpowers: * Cuban Missile Crisis - Vasili Arkhipov Prevents launching of nuclear torpedo while his Soviet submarine flotilla is being bombarded by depth charges (happened to be signaling depth charges). Turns out the US warships above them just wanted the submarines to surface so they could communicate the end of hostilities. * Computer Malfunction - Stanislav Petrov Holds off alerting officials of multiple incoming nuclear ICBMs because he "suspected" they were a glitch, preventing a likely nuclear counter-attack. * Science experiment looks like nuclear attack - Boris Yeltsin correctly decides to wait launching a counter-attack based on an incoming rocket. All the while sitting in front of an activated nuclear briefcase and being pressured by aids to launch within the 12 minute response window. The rocket was meant for atmospheric testing. There are many, many more. Proliferation means more and more nation states have access to nuclear weapons. Balancing peace amongst all those nations can be difficult (look at India and Pakistan). Countries with existing nuclear stockpiles can undergo dramatic shifts in leadership and policy (US politics anyone?). We also have 7.5+ billion people on the planet, consuming more resources than ever, on a planet with a finite amount of things. Now throw in the further ramifications of climate change like political instability, infrastructure strain, resource scarcity, and refugee migrations into the mix. Or a truly mad guy with a nuke. There are way too many people out there that are crazy optimistic that we aren't going to have a nuclear war...ever. We have always had warfare, and when the shit hits the fan, armies have always used the biggest weapons they have had. Nuclear weapons may very well be our great filter. |
And yet virtually every scenario is resolved in the same way: there's no reason that the other side would declare a surprise nuclear war, so the evidence I have of this fact is probably misinterpreted. That's not exactly luck, but people interpreting (and making) policy rationally. Which is why irrational political leaders are so god-damn terrifying.