[jcranmer]

> In the short period of time we have had access to nuclear weapons, we have come very close to nuclear war between superpowers:

And yet virtually every scenario is resolved in the same way: there's no reason that the other side would declare a surprise nuclear war, so the evidence I have of this fact is probably misinterpreted. That's not exactly luck, but people interpreting (and making) policy rationally. Which is why irrational political leaders are so god-damn terrifying.