I don't think people should try to price in stock value "growth" into the equation. The fair value today of the stock you're promised on the nth year is just the price of the stock today (for publicly traded companies).
Why on earth would it estimate a 48% y/y growth forever for Square stock. That's insane. Past performance != future performance, yeesh. At that rate by the end of the 4 year estimation here, Square will be worth $240B (4.8X) -- or the market cap of Tesla. By year 2028, $1.150 TRILLION (23X) dollars, or just shy of an Apple.
Keeping in mind that they just divested a major business unit, point to where in [1] you think this is justified haha.
It's downright negligent to suggest people consider a 48% y/y growth in equity when figuring their future compensation. I mean Square's down 6% since July 2. Not to mention, Square stock saw zero or negative equity total return from September 2018 until this week. It trades like a penny stock. Can confirm, am shareholder.
If we're moving up 48% y/y forever, I'll quit my job as I'm going to be a billionaire by the turn of the decade.
I think it's also important to consider that at a company like Facebook, you won't stay an IC4 forever, and you will start seeing IC5 refresh grants that will be much more substantial. I don't know how Square's handling leveling these days, but comparing my time at both, Facebook's going to be much more structured. It's not enough to compare without factoring in expected time to next level and next level refresh grants, and promotion grants. And, of course, grounding your expectations for equity appreciation in something approaching reality.
This is the problem of using a website/front-end created by some arbitrary person (Peter Levels in this case) to view what is essentially a read only copy of some crowdsourced data
I believe you are correct and I misspoke. I could have sworn I remembered seeing that site on his twitter bio as something he created, but now it seems to me that I have mistakenly identified him as the arbitrary creator :(
Keeping in mind that they just divested a major business unit, point to where in [1] you think this is justified haha.
It's downright negligent to suggest people consider a 48% y/y growth in equity when figuring their future compensation. I mean Square's down 6% since July 2. Not to mention, Square stock saw zero or negative equity total return from September 2018 until this week. It trades like a penny stock. Can confirm, am shareholder.
If we're moving up 48% y/y forever, I'll quit my job as I'm going to be a billionaire by the turn of the decade.
I think it's also important to consider that at a company like Facebook, you won't stay an IC4 forever, and you will start seeing IC5 refresh grants that will be much more substantial. I don't know how Square's handling leveling these days, but comparing my time at both, Facebook's going to be much more structured. It's not enough to compare without factoring in expected time to next level and next level refresh grants, and promotion grants. And, of course, grounding your expectations for equity appreciation in something approaching reality.
[1] https://s21.q4cdn.com/114365585/files/doc_financials/2020/Q1...