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by arrrg
2181 days ago
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New York obviously “benefits” from an intensive first wave. Every additional infection makes spread harder for the virus. As many European countries show (including Germany, where the infected population is very low, much lower than the European average, much much lower than Italy or Spain) it’s very possible to keep the epidemic at a low, simmering level without extremely drastic lockdowns. Given a probably pretty low K value it’s also often sufficient to not be super-efficient about prevention. Some efficiency goes a long way. |
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It's very hard to know the cause of the dramatic decline in nations that were hit hard, so I don't think we can attribute it as simply as that. It could be immunity we're unable to test (T-cell), weather meaning more are outdoors, awareness and measures like distancing and masks, or a mix of many things. We just don't know at this stage.
I'd note that Germany is still seeing outbreaks, and they were hit less hard in the initial wave in Europe. Italy in contrast, which has relaxed restrictions, is seeing very low levels of deaths and cases.