[grey-area]

it’s very possible to keep the epidemic at a low, simmering level without extremely drastic lockdowns.

It's very hard to know the cause of the dramatic decline in nations that were hit hard, so I don't think we can attribute it as simply as that. It could be immunity we're unable to test (T-cell), weather meaning more are outdoors, awareness and measures like distancing and masks, or a mix of many things. We just don't know at this stage.

I'd note that Germany is still seeing outbreaks, and they were hit less hard in the initial wave in Europe. Italy in contrast, which has relaxed restrictions, is seeing very low levels of deaths and cases.