[mlyle]

The whole point of the paper is that coefficient of variation affects the herd immunity threshold. And it obviously does, if you read the paper. The problem is, we don't know for sure what the CV is-- we can only guess based on history and observations.

> Just reading, in one meat processing plant in Germany, from 3000 workers tested they have 1000 PCR positives

This makes me think you don't understand any of the argument. A) CV includes things like contact network structure. OK, meat plants are an unfavorable contact network structure: this proves the point! If we have an observed R0 of 2.5 or 3.0, it includes (disproportionately) people who spend time in places with unfavorable conditions and contact others with unfavorable network structure. If there's a CV, what that means is that in some subgroups of contact structure and individual susceptibility (e.g. meat plants) we have an R0 much higher than 3, and in the bulk of the population we have an R0 much lower than 3.

B) Even ignoring this, there's nothing to say you won't overshoot a herd immunity threshold. The herd immunity threshold is just the threshold where each infection results in less than 1 new infection, on average: it isn't a place where infection magically stops, but instead where the number infected can be expected to naturally decrease. Obviously it's advantageous to have the infected count as low as possible when this happens, because it's only a slow decay from that point.

[WildParser]

Have you noticed that the curves are following Gompertz-Model?

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10157283645163015

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aHrx68IT7o

There is no constant CV>1 - it all depends on the situation.

[acqq]

I simply can't imagine that anybody who even basically understands the related topics could believe the facebook post you posted (I'm referring to the graph). If I'm wrong and they do exist I'm very, very sad, and even scared imagining having to deal with such people.

Also update from yesterday: in Germany's plant today's score is "more than 1500"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8450221/1-500-worke...

[WildParser]

Feel free to take a look at the official data yourself.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-tod...

You need nothing but Excel/LibreOffice and a few simple formulas to get this picture.

Germany has a heavy 7 day rhythm, because they're doing their reporting in a very strange way. Using 7 day averages helps a lot to get rid of the reporting-noise.

You need: Daily death (averages over 7 days) Total death (Sum) (averages over 7 days)

daily/total

Just use SUM() and /

[acqq]

I don't doubt that one can produce the picture. The problem is that these drawn lines over the real data don't mean anything.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rorschach_test

[WildParser]

R² > 0,995

If you subtract the trend of the first outbreak from the main trend it's R²>0,995 from the beginning down the point where old people started to wear masks and go to church. Here things get worse - as expected.

New trend is still collapsing exponentially - numbers now are so low that the curve has reporting issues (national deathcount on Sunday was -1).

[acqq]

The Saturday and Sunday are the "weird" death data in most of the countries, and not because people die less on these days, but because not all those that report the deaths do that on these days: even in hospitals in the middle of epidemics some people in administration simply don't work on weekends.

So what I see for Germany is the number of detected cases increased the last week, therefore I expect in 2-4 weeks the increase of deaths in Germany, that's how much the delay is between more cases and more deaths.

I don't see anything else that is a realistic "signal" about anything.