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by WildParser 2194 days ago
Feel free to take a look at the official data yourself.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-tod...

You need nothing but Excel/LibreOffice and a few simple formulas to get this picture.

Germany has a heavy 7 day rhythm, because they're doing their reporting in a very strange way. Using 7 day averages helps a lot to get rid of the reporting-noise.

You need: Daily death (averages over 7 days) Total death (Sum) (averages over 7 days)

daily/total

Just use SUM() and /
1 comments
acqq 2192 days ago
I don't doubt that one can produce the picture. The problem is that these drawn lines over the real data don't mean anything.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rorschach_test

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WildParser 2192 days ago
R² > 0,995

If you subtract the trend of the first outbreak from the main trend it's R²>0,995 from the beginning down the point where old people started to wear masks and go to church. Here things get worse - as expected.

New trend is still collapsing exponentially - numbers now are so low that the curve has reporting issues (national deathcount on Sunday was -1).

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acqq 2189 days ago
The Saturday and Sunday are the "weird" death data in most of the countries, and not because people die less on these days, but because not all those that report the deaths do that on these days: even in hospitals in the middle of epidemics some people in administration simply don't work on weekends.

So what I see for Germany is the number of detected cases increased the last week, therefore I expect in 2-4 weeks the increase of deaths in Germany, that's how much the delay is between more cases and more deaths.

I don't see anything else that is a realistic "signal" about anything.

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WildParser 2189 days ago
Currently in Germany it maybe works the other way around.

Last month around me it worked like this: Big spikes in case were caused by a test-campaign around somebody who died (or was ill). So a trend in case might in fact be an old trend of death - and the burst in case might in fact be asymptomatic or mild cases not leading to any death.

When you try to fit the spikes of death and case things are strange. In Germany maybe case and death have completely detached from each other.

Currently there are a lot of corrections going on. Bavaria had a deathcount of -3 on Saturday. Maybe they are piling up to report a big spike soon, or they stopped someone from reporting nonsense? We will see...

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