[sarchertech]

We have multiple vaccine candidates that based on early human trials, and animal trials are very likely to work. Sure it's possible all of them could fail, but I wouldn't set my bet on that.

[ericb]

Right. There are around 100 vaccines in development. We have vaccines that have created binding antibodies in primates already. We have some that have been given to humans and produced antibodies as well.

Even pessimistically assuming 90% fail, you end up with 10 vaccines.

https://www.centerwatch.com/articles/12702-new-mit-study-put...

[soperj]

that's not pessimistic. Regularly only 6% of vaccines make it past trials.

[eli_gottlieb]

Yes, but with each trial stage a particular vaccine candidate passes, its likelihood of failing the further stages goes down. Most candidates that are going to fail, do so in the lab or in Phase 1 trials. A vaccine candidate that passes Phase 1 and Phase 2 has a pretty good outlook.

[ericb]

Do you have a source, because I provided one, and if you look, it says:

"Approval rates ranged from a high of 33.4 percent in vaccines for infectious diseases to 3.4 percent for investigational cancer treatments"

So by that source, I was wildly pessimistic.

[ericb]

Above I asked for a source for the 6% number. I randomly came across a second-hand source in this article that actually used that same number:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...