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by soperj 2210 days ago
that's not pessimistic. Regularly only 6% of vaccines make it past trials.
2 comments
eli_gottlieb 2209 days ago
Yes, but with each trial stage a particular vaccine candidate passes, its likelihood of failing the further stages goes down. Most candidates that are going to fail, do so in the lab or in Phase 1 trials. A vaccine candidate that passes Phase 1 and Phase 2 has a pretty good outlook.
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ericb 2210 days ago
Do you have a source, because I provided one, and if you look, it says:

"Approval rates ranged from a high of 33.4 percent in vaccines for infectious diseases to 3.4 percent for investigational cancer treatments"

So by that source, I was wildly pessimistic.

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ericb 2201 days ago
Above I asked for a source for the 6% number. I randomly came across a second-hand source in this article that actually used that same number:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

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